000 AXNT20 KNHC 131746 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 146 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... NE gale-force winds are forecast to start on 14/0000 UTC along the coast of Colombia. Sea heights will range between 08 to 11 feet. The gale is forecast to end on 14/1200 UTC. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 00N24W to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 01N-07S between 30W-40W, and from 06N-04S between 40W-48W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front extends from the Straits of Florida from 24N80W to the E Gulf of Mexico near 28N85W. A warm front continued to SE Louisiana near 30N89W. The fronts are void of convection. The remainder of the Gulf has 15-20 kt SE return flow. A cold front is inland over S Texas that is presently producing broken low clouds along the coast of Texas. Furthermore, coastal fog persists along the Texas and Louisiana coasts. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 85W. Upper level moisture is over the N Gulf N of 28N. The remainder of the Gulf has strong subsidence. High pressure will prevail over the forecast waters through Thu. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Thu morning and reach from near Cross City, Florida to the Bay of Campeche early on Sat. The front will then stall from South Florida to the Bay of Campeche Sat night. Gale force winds are possible over the waters near Tampico and Veracruz Fri evening through Sat. The front will exit the SE Gulf on Sun morning leaving a surface trough over the SW gulf with strong to near gale force winds prevailing through Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-30 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of Colombia and weakest winds over the Leeward Islands. Passing showers are moving W with the tradewinds mainly S of Puerto Rico,and along the S coast of Hispaniola. Similar showers are over Honduras, Nicaragua, and W Panama. In the upper levels, strong subsidence covers the Caribbean Sea and Central America suppressing convection. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trades over much of the central Caribbean through Sun night, with gale force winds expected near the coast of Colombia tonight. Fresh to strong winds are also expected over the Gulf of Honduras and Belize adjacent waters tonight and Thu night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue across the remainder of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N58W to 24N66W to the Straits of Florida near 24N80W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm E of the front E of 65W. A surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 31N48W to 25N50W. A 1042 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 42N22W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the W Atlantic supporting the surface front. A small upper level low is over the E Atlantic near 32N42W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the center. Over the W Atlantic, the cold front will shift south-southeast while weakening through early Thu. High pressure building in the wake of the front will prevail through Sat. A new cold front will enter the NW waters Sat morning. The front will stall from near 31N70W to near Palm Beach, Florida Sat night. The front will transition back to a cold front on Sun morning and extend from 31N65W to 27N75W on Sun night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa