000 AXNT20 KNHC 131058 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 658 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... NE gale-force winds will pulse near the coast of Colombia through 1200 UTC today and again tonight. Sea heights will range between 10 to 13 feet while the gales are in progress. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to 03N14W. The ITCZ continues from 03N14W to 02S26W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is seen from 06S-03S between 34W-38W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 07S-05N between the coast of South America and a line extending from 07S27W 04S27W 05N42W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen from 00N-03N between 18W-28W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak frontal boundary extends as a stationary front from South Florida near 26N81W to 27N85W, continuing NW as a warm front to 28N89W to the W end of Lake Pontchartrain near 30N90.5W to central Arkansas to SW Oklahoma. No significant shower activity is noted near the front or anywhere in the Gulf of Mexico, although isolated showers are seen in the Florida Straits. Broad deep- layer ridging is suppressing convection over the basin. A strong low pressure system extending from the Great Plains to northern Mexico is producing a tight pressure gradient over the western half of the Gulf. Surface observations indicate strong to locally near gale SE winds are occurring. These winds should continue through the morning hours over portions of the western Gulf. The low pressure system mentioned in the paragraph above extends a cold front across central Texas and northern Mexico. A squall line producing strong to severe thunderstorms is ahead of the front moving E. The line should be in a weaker state by early this afternoon, when some showers and thunderstorms could spread over the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front currently over central Texas should weaken as it becomes stationary over E Texas. Another cold front approaching from the west will come off the Louisiana and Texas coasts Thu. The front will reach from near Pensacola Florida to the Bay of Campeche by Fri morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front, increasing to gale force over the waters near Tampico and Veracruz Fri evening through Sat evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh trades cover much of the central Caribbean, with strong trades in the south-central Caribbean S of 14N. Moderate to locally fresh trades are in the E Caribbean E of 67W, and moderate trades are over much of the NW Caribbean, except for fresh over the Gulf of Honduras. Mainly fair weather is in progress over the basin, aside from isolated showers near Puerto Rico, Trinidad and the ABC Islands. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trades over much of the central Caribbean through Sat night, with gale force winds expected near the coast of Colombia tonight. Fresh to strong winds are also expected over the Gulf of Honduras and Belize adjacent waters tonight and Thu night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue across the remainder of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front over the W Atlantic enter the forecast waters near 32N59W to 26N67W to near Miami Florida, where it becomes a weak stationary front. The weak front continues NW into the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 90 nm of the front, mainly E of 66W and N of 25N. Isolated showers are elsewhere near the front, including between Andros Island and the upper Florida Keys. The cold front will shift southward while weakening through Fri. High pressure building in the wake of the front will prevail through Sat. A new cold front will enter the NW waters Sat. The front will stall from near 31N75W to Central Florida Sat night. A surface trough is analyzed from 31N50W to 26N45W. Isolated showers are within 120 nm of the trough. An upper-level low is weakening near 31N42W and will soon move north of the area. It is enhancing scattered moderate convection N of 30N between 38W-43W. Otherwise, a 1041 mb high pressure centered N of the Azores near 42N24W is generating fresh trades over the tropical N Atlc between 25W and 45W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen