000 AXNT20 KNHC 130525 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 125 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... NE gale-force winds will pulse near the coast of Colombia through sunrise today and again on Wed night. Sea heights will range between 9 to 12 feet while the gales are in progress. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...Texas Nearshore Waters Gale Warning... Southerly return flow of 20-30 kt with frequent gusts to gale force is forecast to last until 0900 UTC this morning within 60 nm of the coast of southern Texas from Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio Grande River. Please see the Coastal Waters Forecast from NWS Brownsville for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to 04N13W. The ITCZ continues from 04N13W to 02S26W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 07S-04N, between the coast of South America and a line extending from 06S30W to 04N41W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 00N-03N between 20W-27W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... As of 0300 UTC, a weak frontal boundary crosses the Gulf of Mexico from near Naples Florida to 27N88W to near Lake Charles Louisiana. No significant shower activity is noted near the front or anywhere in the Gulf of Mexico. Broad deep-layer ridging is suppressing convection over the basin. Low pressure over interior northern Mexico is producing a tight pressure gradient over the western Gulf. An ASCAT pass from 13/0254 UTC shows fresh to strong SE winds off the coast of Texas. Fresh to near gale force SE winds are expected over most of the western Gulf today. High pressure will prevail over the forecast waters through Thu. A cold front will come off the Louisiana and Texas coasts Thu. The front will reach from near Pensacola Florida to the Bay of Campeche by Fri morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front, increasing to gale force over the waters near Tampico and Veracruz Fri evening through Sat evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh trades cover much of the central Caribbean, with strong trades in the south-central Caribbean S of 14N. Moderate to locally fresh trades are in the E Caribbean E of 67W, and moderate trades are over much of the NW Caribbean, except for fresh over the Gulf of Honduras. Mainly fair weather is in progress over the basin, aside from isolated showers near Puerto Rico and near Trinidad. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trades over much of the central Caribbean through Sat night, with gale force winds expected at night near the coast of Colombia through tonight. Fresh to strong winds are also expected over the Gulf of Honduras and Belize adjacent waters tonight and Thu night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue across the remainder of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves WSW over the forecast waters from near 32N61W to 28N69W to near Ft Lauderdale Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm of the front, mainly E of 68W. Isolated showers are near the front between 68W-74W. The cold front will push SE across the basin through this morning. High pressure will build over the region Wed and Thu, then prevail through Sat. A new cold front will enter the NW waters Sat morning and reach from 31N72W to Palm Beach Florida by Sat night. A surface trough is analyzed from 31N50W to 26N44W. Isolated showers are within 120 nm of the trough. An upper-level low near 30N42W is enhancing scattered moderate convection N of 28N between 37W-44W. Otherwise, a 1041 mb high pressure centered N of the Azores near 43N25W is generating fresh trades over the tropical N Atlc between 25W and 45W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen