000 AXNT20 KNHC 122349 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 749 PM EDT Tue Mar 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... The NE gale-force winds will pulse along the N coast of Colombia tonight and Wed night. Sea heights will range between 9 to 12 feet while the gales are in progress. A respite in the gales is expected through Sat as low pres moving E from the United States mainland weakens the ridge over the western Atlc. High pres rebuilding over the western Atlantic could bring gales back to the coast of Colombia Sat night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to 02S27W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04S to 02S between 18W and 22W and within 60 nm either side of a line from 05S30W to 02N42W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A frontal boundary crosses the Gulf of Mexico from near Tampa Florida to near Houston Texas. Broad deep-layer ridging is suppressing convection over the basin. Deepening low pressure over interior Mexico is tightening the pressure gradient over the western Gulf. Fresh to near gale force SE winds are expected over most of the western gulf tonight and Wed as the pressure gradient tightens. The strengthening winds have dispersed the patchy dense fog observed earlier today along the Texas coast. The high pressure is expected to prevail over the forecast waters through Thu, then a cold front will push SE from the Texas and Louisiana coasts Thu. The front will reach from near Pensacola Florida to the Bay of Campeche by Fri morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front, increasing to gale force over the waters near Tampico and Veracruz Fri evening through Sat evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong trades cover much of the central Caribbean, with fresh trades noted over the E Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate winds are observed elsewhere in the NW Caribbean. Mainly fair weather is in progress over the basin as strong upper-level convergence takes place between an upper-level trough over the eastern Caribbean and ridging extending ESE from the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trades over much of the central Caribbean through Sat night, with gale force winds expected at night near the coast of Colombia through Wed night. Fresh to strong winds are also expected over the Gulf of Honduras and Belize adjacent waters Wed and Thu night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades continue across the remainder of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves WSW over the forecast waters from near 32N64W to near Ft Pierce Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found along and up to 30 nm S of the front N of 28N. The cold front will push SE across the waters N of 23N through Wed morning. High pressure will build over the region Wed and Thu, then prevail through Sat. A new cold front will enter the NW waters Sat morning and reach from 31N72W to Palm Beach Florida Sat night. A surface trough curves S from 30N46W through a 1015 mb low centered over the central Atlantic near 28N45W to 22N45W. This low extends upward through the mid and upper-levels of the troposphere. Scattered moderate convection is present in the E quadrant of the low up to 300 nm. Otherwise, 1040 mb high pressure centered N of the Azores near 44N28W is generating moderate trades over the tropical N Atlc between 25W and 45W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy