000 AXNT20 KNHC 121749 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 149 PM EDT Tue Mar 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... The NE gale-force winds have subsided to less than gale-force during the day near the coast of N Colombia from 11N to 12.5N between 74W and 76W. The gale is forecast to resume at 13/0000 UTC and will end by 13/1800 UTC near the Colombia coast. Sea heights will range from 9 to 12 feet. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia near 06N10W to 01N13W. The ITCZ continues from 01N13W to 03S22W to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 06S-01S between 26W and the coast of South America. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06S-01N between 17W and 23W, and from 02N-06N between 18W and the coast of Liberia. GULF OF MEXICO... An E-W oriented cold front extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico near Melbourne Florida to near Clearwater Florida. From the north-central Gulf of Mexico and to south of Galveston, the boundary remains stationary and stretches westward into the Big Bend of Texas. There were isolated showers off the Galveston Texas coast moving inland but no significant shower activity is noted over the Gulf of Mexico with the front. Winds over the northern Gulf are northeast gentle to moderate. A trough extended across the Bay of Campeche where the strongest winds in the basin are observed, where winds are moderate to fresh. A strong mid-level ridge over the southern Gulf is leading to subsidence and fair weather for the S Gulf. Satellite imagery and surface observations continue to indicate that patchy dense fog remains across the western Gulf south of Louisiana. Areas of patchy dense fog is observed across the Texas coast between Port Arthur to the mouth of the Rio Grande River. High pressure is expected to prevail over the forecast waters through Thu. Fresh to near gale force SE winds are expected over most of the western Gulf tonight and Wed as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold front that will come off the Texas and Louisiana coast on Thu. The front will reach from near Pensacola Florida to the Bay of Campeche by Fri morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front, increasing to gale force over the waters near Tampico and Veracruz Fri evening through Sat evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong trades cover much of the central Caribbean, with fresh trades in the E Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras, and moderate winds elsewhere in the NW Caribbean. Patches of clouds were observed across most of the basin with isolated showers adjacent to the Greater Antilles and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trades over much of the central Caribbean through Sat night, with gale force winds expected at night near the coast of Colombia through Wed night. Fresh to strong winds are also expected over the Gulf of Honduras and Belize adjacent waters Wed and Thu night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades continue across the remainder of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast waters near 29N70W and stretches to Melbourne Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are off the east coast of Florida, within 90 nautical miles of Melbourne. Scattered moderate convection is from north of 28N between 73W to 77W. A 1017 mb low is centered over the central Atlantic near 27N44W. An upper-level low is nearly vertically stacked with this surface low. Scattered moderate convection is from 25N-30N between 40W to 46W. A 1020 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 27N61W. The cold front will push SE across the waters N of 23N through Wed morning. High pressure will build over the region Wed and Thu, then prevail through Sat. A new cold front will enter the NW waters Sat morning and reach from 31N72W to Palm Beach Florida Sat night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR