000 AXNT20 KNHC 121055 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 654 AM EDT Tue Mar 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... A 12/0130 UTC ASCAT pass confirms that NE gale-force winds are occurring near the coast of N Colombia from 11N to 12.5N between 74W and 76W. The sea heights will range from 10 feet to 13 feet. The gale is forecast to end at 12/1200 UTC. The gale is forecast to resume at 13/0000 UTC, and end again at 13/1200 UTC. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia near 07N11W to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W to 02S30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06S-01S between 14W and the coast of South America. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere from 06S-03N between 05W and the coast of South America, and from 04N-07N between the coast of Liberia and 14W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak E-W cold front extends over the northern Gulf of Mexico from near St. Augustine Florida to near Apalachicola Florida to Buras Louisiana to Galveston Texas. It then continues as a stationary front inland to San Antonio Texas, then to 29N104W. Some showers are located well inland over Texas, but no significant shower activity is noted over the Gulf of Mexico with the front. Winds over the northern Gulf are gentle to moderate. A 1023 mb surface high is centered in the E Gulf near 28N85W. The strongest winds in the basin are found in the SW Gulf, where winds are fresh to strong. A strong mid-level ridge over the southern Gulf is leading to subsidence and fair weather for the S Gulf. Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that patchy dense fog exists near the Florida Gulf Coast between Englewood Florida and the Choctawhatchee Bay Florida. Dense fog remains possible in the area until 1800 UTC today. Areas of dense fog are also being reported along the coast of Texas between Galveston Bay and the mouth of the Rio Grande River. High pressure will prevail over the forecast waters through Thu. Fresh to near gale force SE winds are expected over most of the western Gulf tonight and Wed as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold front that will come off Louisiana and Texas coasts Thu. The front will reach from near the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche by late Fri night. Gale force winds are possible over the waters near Tampico and Veracruz Fri and Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Gale force winds are occurring near the coast of Colombia. See section above for details. Elsewhere, strong trades cover much of the central Caribbean, with fresh trades in the E Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras, and moderate winds elsewhere in the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers are over the E Caribbean N of 16N between 64W-68W, including near and over Puerto Rico. Similar showers are near the Windward Islands and Trinidad. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trades over much of the central Caribbean through Sat night, with gale force winds expected at night near the coast of Colombia through Wed night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue across the remainder of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast waters near 32N71W and continues to St. Augustine Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted along and within 90 nm ahead of the cold front between 70W-79W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 30N between 64W- 70W. A 1022 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 30N61W. A 1015 mb low is centered over the central Atlantic near 26N46W. An upper- level low is nearly vertically stacked with this surface low. Scattered moderate convection is from 25N-30N between 40W-47W. A 1031 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 37N18W. The cold front over the northern waters from 32N71W to N Florida will push across the waters N of 25N through Wed morning. High pressure will build over the region Wed and Thu, then prevail through Sat. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen