000 AXNT20 KNHC 120548 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 148 AM EDT Tue Mar 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... A 12/0130 UTC ASCAT pass confirms that NE gale-force winds are occurring near the coast of N Colombia from 11N to 12.5N between 74W and 76W. The sea heights will range from 10 feet to 13 feet. The gale is forecast to end at 12/1200 UTC. The gale is forecast to resume at 13/0000 UTC, and end again at 13/1200 UTC. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia near 06N11W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 02N23W to 01S30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S43W. Isolated moderate convection is seen from 05S-03N between 06W and the coast of South America. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends along the N Gulf Coast from 31N81W to Tallahassee Florida to 30N88W to Lake Charles Louisiana to near San Antonio Texas and inland to near 29N104W. No significant shower activity is noted with the front. A recent ASCAT pass and surface observations indicate that although there is a wind shift with the front, winds do not exceed 10-15 kt on either side of the front, and in most areas, winds are 5-10 kt across the N Gulf. A 1023 mb surface high is centered in the E Gulf near 28N85W. The strongest winds in the basin are found in the SW Gulf, where winds are fresh to strong. A strong mid-level ridge over the southern Gulf is leading to subsidence and fair weather for the S Gulf. Satellite imagery and surface observations suggest that patchy dense fog exists near the Florida Gulf Coast between Englewood Florida and the Choctawhatchee Bay Florida. Dense fog is forecast to remain possible in the area until 1800 UTC today. Patchy dense fog is also being reported along the coast of Texas between Port O'Connor and the mouth of the Rio Grande River. Fresh to near gale force SE winds are expected over most of the western Gulf Tue night and Wed as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold front that will come off the Louisiana and Texas coasts Thu. The front will reach from Cross City, Florida to the Bay of Campeche by late Fri night. Gale force winds will be possible over the waters near Tampico and Veracruz Fri and Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Gale force winds are occurring near the coast of Colombia. See section above for details. Elsewhere, 15-30 kt trades cover much of the central and eastern Caribbean, with 10-15 kt winds over the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers are over the E Caribbean N of 16N between 65W-68W, including near and over Puerto Rico. Similar showers are over the Windward Islands. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trades over much of the central Caribbean through Sat night, with gale force winds expected at night near the coast of Colombia through Wed night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse during the evenings over the Windward Passage. Strong winds will affect the Gulf of Honduras Wed and Thu evening. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue across the remainder of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast waters near 32N74W and continues to 31N81W to Tallahassee Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 30 nm N and 120 nm S of the front. A 1023 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 30N63W. A 1015 mb low is centered over the central Atlantic near 26N46W. An upper-level low is nearly vertically stacked with this surface low. Scattered moderate convection is from 25N-29N between 41W-48W. A 1033 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 37N19W. The cold front over the NW waters will cross the waters N of 25N through Wed morning. High pressure will build over the region Wed and Thu, then prevail through Sat. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen