000 AXNT20 KNHC 091804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 104 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... NE gale-force winds will be slow down in speed, to less than gale-force, during the daytime hours. Expect the NE gale-force winds to return tonight, from 11N to 12N between 74W and 76W, near the coast of Colombia. The sea heights will range from 9 to 10 feet. The wind speeds will slow down during the daytime hours on Sunday, and then return to gale-force Sunday night. Please refer the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia near 06N10W, and to the Equator along 00N23W. The ITCZ continues from the Equator 02S41W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present 180 nm north and south of the monsoon trough near the coast of Africa extending west to 14W. Further west near the coast of Brazil, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 300 nm south of the ITCZ between 25W-35W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level ridge is along 85W. At the surface, high pressure extends across central Florida into south central Gulf of Mexico. Low pressure is moving into the basin as cold front moving across south central Texas makes its way southeast today. High level clouds are streaming across the northern portion of the basin but no significant convection is present. Scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong southeast winds over the central Gulf and moderate over the northern Gulf. High pressure will linger over the forecast waters through Sat. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Sun, stall along the northern coast Mon and Tue, then lift N as a warm front Wed. Strong southerly winds are possible in the northern Gulf Tue night and Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is in the eastern part of the Caribbean Sea from 16N68W to 12N70W. Showers and thunderstorms are associated with this trough across the Mona Pass. Elsewhere in the basin, fair weather continues with upper ridge gradually moving into the area enhancing subsidence across the NW Caribbean Sea. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades are occurring across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trades in much of the central Caribbean through Wed, with gale force trades expected each night near the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades will continue across the remainder of the area through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1031 mb high pressure center is near 40N48W. A 1033 mb high pressure center is near 37N21W, about 220 nm to the east of the eastern part of the Azores. A stationary front passes through 30N49W to 25N60W, to 23N69W, and transitions to a dissipating stationary front to the central Bahamas near 23N74W. Scattered moderate convection is present 30 nm in the vicinity of the boundary. Strong 1035 mb surface high pressure will prevail across the area through Monday. A cold front will enter the NW corner of the area on Monday, and then move across the waters that are to the N of 27N through Tuesday night. High pressure will build across the northern waters again on Wednesday and Wednesday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres