454 AXNT20 KNHC 081752 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1252 PM EST Fri Mar 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... The pressure gradient has tighten over the south-central Caribbean enhancing the winds near the coast of Colombia from 11N to 12N between 74W-76W, where gale-force winds will return tonight, with seas to 10 to 12 ft. Winds have diminished during the daytime hours and is expected to increase again each night through early next week. Please refer the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the east Atlantic waters from the African coast near 06N11W to 02N14W to 00N23W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted in the vicinity of the monsoon trough from 03N to 02S between 14W to 25W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends across the basin, anchored by a 1030 mb high centered over the northwest Atlantic near 38N70W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate easterly winds across most of the basin. In the upper levels, zonal flow is over the Gulf with strong subsidence with a surface trough extending over the Bay of Campeche adjacent to the eastern Mexican coast. High pressure will prevail through Sat. Southerly return flow will develop and strengthen this weekend. A weak cold front will move into the north-central Gulf of Mexico on Sun, and dissipate by Mon as high pressure builds back into the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details about the Gale Warning currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean. The tail-end of a stationary front continues to linger along the eastern tip of Cuba near 20N72W to 17N81W. Scattered showers are over E Cuba. Northeast moderate winds prevail west of the front mainly west of 79W, while moderate to locally fresh winds prevail east of the front. Strongest winds are along the coast of north Colombia. Patches of scattered showers are observed near the frontal boundary over the E Caribbean E of 70W. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trades over much of the central Caribbean through early next week, with gale force nocturnal trades expected near the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades will continue across the remainder of the area through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1030 mb high is centered over the west Atlantic near 38N70W. East of this high, a cold front enters the discussion area near 30N53W and extends southwest through 23N67W. The tail-end of the boundary transitions to a stationary front from 23N67W to the eastern tip of Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the front between 50W-70W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1033 mb centered near 35N27W. The cold front will stall by tonight and will gradually dissipate by Sat. High pressure will then build and prevail across the area through Mon. A cold front will move into the northwest part of the area Mon, and move across the waters N of 27N through Tue night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR/MMT