000 AXNT20 KNHC 080537 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1237 AM EST Fri Mar 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... The pressure gradient will tighten over the south-central Caribbean enhancing the winds near the coast of Colombia from 11-12N between 74W-76W, where gale-force winds are occurring at this time, with seas to 11 ft. Winds will diminish during the daytime hours and will increase again each night through early next week. Please refer the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the east Atlantic waters from the African coast near 09N13W to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon trough between 12W-18W. Scattered showers prevail within 75 nm north of the ITCZ mainly west of 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends across the basin, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered over the northwest Atlantic near 37N73W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate easterly winds across most of the basin except east of 84W, where light winds are noted. In the upper levels, zonal flow is over the Gulf with strong subsidence. High pressure will weaken and shift eastward through Sat. Southerly return flow will develop and strengthen this weekend. A weak cold front will move into the northwest Gulf of Mexico on Sun, and dissipate by Mon as high pressure takes control of the weather pattern into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details about the Gale Warning currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean. The tail-end of a stationary front extends from the eastern tip of Cuba near 20N75W to 17N84W. Scattered showers are over E Cuba. Northeast moderate winds prevail west of the front, while moderate to locally fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Strongest winds are along the coast of north Colombia. Patches of scattered showers are observed over the E Caribbean E of 70W. Tight pressure gradient will support gale-force nocturnal winds near the coast of Colombia for the next several nights. Otherwise, benign conditions are expected throughout the rest of the Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1029 mb high is centered over the west Atlantic near 37N73W. A stationary front extends from the central Atlantic near 31N53W to 21N74W. Scattered showers are noted along the front between 56W- 70W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1034 mb centered near 34N30W. Of note in the upper levels, a large trough is over the W Atlantic N of 20N and W of 50W supporting the surface front. The high pressure over the west Atlantic will shift eastward through Saturday. The front over the central Atlantic will dissipate by Saturday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA