000 AXNT20 KNHC 071731 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1231 PM EST Thu Mar 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... The pressure gradient will tighten over the south-central Caribbean by Fri night, enhancing the winds near the coast of Colombia from 11-12N between 74W-75W, where gale-force winds are expected to develop. Winds will diminish during the daytime hours and will increase again each night through early next week. Please refer the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the east Atlantic waters from the African coast near 06N12W to 01N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03S30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 04W and 19W, and from 04S to 01N between 26W and 46W. GULF OF MEXICO... Satellite imagery shows cloudy conditions across the western Gulf of Mexico west of 90W. This is associated with a surface trough extending from the Bay of Campeche to southeast Texas with some isolated showers adjacent to the trough. Fair weather exists east of 90W due to high pressure building across the area. Winds will generally be east-southeast between 15-20 kt. High pressure over the eastern Gulf is expected to weaken and shift eastward through Saturday. Southerly return flow will develop and strengthen this weekend. By Sunday, a weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico and dissipate by Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail-end of a stationary front is located at the eastern tip of Cuba to 19N81W. Winds west of the front are generally out of the northeast with easterly trade winds east of the front. Across the Caribbean, patches of clouds were observed on satellite imagery but no deep convection is associated with these clouds. Winds are expected to be northeast to east between 15-20 kt. By Friday night, strong high pressure will support gale force nocturnal winds north of Colombia. This will occur through Monday night. Otherwise, benign conditions are expected throughout the rest of the Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters into the discussion area at 32N54W stretching southwestward into 23N69W. The tail-end of this front becomes stationary from this location to the eastern tip of Cuba. Clouds, with embedded showers, extends 90 n mi east of the front. High pressure was observed west of the front centered over the southeastern U.S. East of the front, high pressure was centered near 33N31W. Winds are expected to be east between 15-20 kt south of the high pressure. The high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will shift eastward through Saturday over the Atlantic. As a result, the southern portion of the cold front from 29N52W to 24N71W is expected to stall on Friday and will dissipate by Saturday. The northern portion of the front, 32N46W to 29N52W, will stall by Friday night and dissipate by Saturday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR/JC