000 AXNT20 KNHC 070511 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1211 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... The pressure gradient will tighten over the south-central Caribbean by Thursday night, enhancing the winds near the coast of Colombia south of 12N between 74W-76W. In this area, gale-force winds are expected to develop. Winds will diminish during the daytime hours, and pick up again overnight. These conditions will repeat each night through early next week. Please refer the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO header FZNT02 KNHC MIAHSFAT2 or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the east Atlantic waters from the African coast near 05N10W to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 04S39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough, while scattered to numerous moderate convection prevails within 150 nm north of the ITCZ mainly west of 25W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin anchored by a 1030 mb high centered to the north of the area. Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail most of the basin, while fresh to strong northerly winds are noted in latest scatterometer data over the Bay of Campeche. The high pressure will shift to east of the region by Fri night. Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will set up over much of the western and central Gulf waters through Sat. A weak cold front is expected to move over the NW Gulf early on Sun and reach from the NE Gulf to near 28N90W, where it will become stationary to northeastern Mexico on Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from central Cuba near 21N78W to 20N87W. Scattered showers are seen within 90 nm on either side of the front. The latest scatterometer pass depicts moderate to fresh northerly winds across the west Caribbean, while moderate to fresh trades easterlies cover the remainder of the basin. Satellite imagery shows scattered low-topped showers moving quickly westward over portions of the Greater Antilles and adjacent waters. The stationary front will become weak and dissipate on Thu. Strong high pressure building across the waters behind the front will tighten the pressure gradient in the Caribbean. Trades over the central Caribbean will be enhanced through early next week. Gale force easterly winds along the coast of Colombia are expected to develop during the nighttime hours beginning on Thu through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends over the west Atlantic from 31N60W to 21N76W. Scattered showers are noted within 90 nm ahead of the front mainly north of 24N. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1032 mb high centered near 33N33W. The front will continue to move eastward, reach from near 25N65W to Hispaniola by early Thu, then weaken and dissipate by early on Sat as high pressure building in behind it shifts eastward through the next few days. A weak cold front is expected to move over the far northwest waters on Mon. Otherwise, tranquil conditions are expected over the forecast waters for the upcoming weekend and into early next week. In the far eastern Atlantic, off the coast of Morocco, Meteo France is forecasting near gale to gale northerly winds during the period from 07/1200 UTC to 08/1200 UTC in marine zones AGADIR and east of TARFAYA. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA