000 AXNT20 KNHC 061730 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1230 PM EST Wed Mar 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... The pressure gradient will tighten over the south-central Caribbean by Thursday night, enhancing the winds near the coast of Colombia south of 12N between 73W-77W. In this area, gale-force winds are expected to develop. Winds will diminish during the daytime hours, and pick up again overnight. These conditions will repeat each night through the weekend. Please refer the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO header FZNT02 KNHC MIAHSFAT2 or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the east Atlantic waters from the African coast near 04N08W to 01N11W to 01S15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 04S32W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06S-01N between 26W and the coast of South America. GULF OF MEXICO... The cold front that was previously in the Gulf of Mexico has moved out of the basin and is now in the NW Caribbean Sea. The gales over the southwest Gulf have ended. Strong winds are still affecting the SW Gulf, while fresh NE winds cover the remainder of the Gulf. A surface trough is over the SW Gulf of Mexico extending from 18N91W to 19N94W to 22N96W. Isolated showers and overcast clouds cover the southwest Gulf. Seas of 9 to 13 ft will continue over portions of the SW Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, diminishing during the evening. Strong high pressure will continue to build in across the area through Thursday in the wake of the cold front that recently exited the basin. Strong northerly winds behind the front will diminish gradually through late tonight. The surface high pressure will shift east of the region by late Friday night. Fresh to locally strong SE to S return flow will be setting up in much of the western and central waters. A new, but weaker, cold front is anticipated to reach the NW Gulf of Mexico early Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from central Cuba near 22N79W across the NW Caribbean Sea to 21N84W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N88W to 17N90W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen within 60 nm of the front. The latest scatterometer pass shows fresh N to NE winds behind the front. Satellite imagery shows isolated low-topped showers moving westward over portions of the Leeward Islands. Moderate to fresh trades cover the eastern and central Caribbean. The cold front over the NW Caribbean is forecast to dissipate gradually by Thursday. High pressure, building near Bermuda behind the front, will accentuate the pressure gradient in the Caribbean Sea. The trade winds will be enhanced from Thursday night through at least Sunday night. NE gale-force winds are possible along the coast of Colombia during the nighttime hours from Thursday until Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends over the west Atlantic from Bermuda to the central Bahamas near 24N75.5W to central Cuba near 22N79W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm ahead of the front north of 27N. Scattered showers are noted elsewhere within 90 nm of the front. Surface ridging prevails across much of the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 32N38W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 31N11W to 25N20W to 24N36W. No significant showers are noted with the trough. The cold front that extends from Bermuda to central Cuba will continue to move eastward, and reach from near 25N65W to Hispaniola on Thursday morning. The front will weaken and dissipate by Saturday morning, as the high pressure that is behind it shifts eastward through the next few days. Quiescent conditions will prevail over the western Atlantic from Saturday through at least Sunday night. In the far eastern Atlantic, off the coast of Morocco, Meteo France is forecasting near gale to gale northerly winds during the period from 07/1200 UTC to 08/1200 UTC in marine zones AGADIR and TARFAYA. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen