000 AXNT20 KNHC 061100 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 600 AM EST Wed Mar 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...SW Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... Gale-force northerly winds are noted in scatterometer data over the southwest Gulf of Mexico south of 21N and west of 94.5W. Seas are expected to peak to around 12-18 ft in this area. These winds are forecast to diminish to the strong category on Wed, with associated seas slowly subsiding. Please refer the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO header FZNT02 KNHC MIAHSFAT2 or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...Caribbean Gale Warning... The pressure gradient will tighten over the south-central Caribbean by early Friday enhancing the winds south of 12N between 73W-77W. In this area, gale-force winds are expected to develop. Winds will diminish during the daytime hours, and pick up back again overnight. These conditions will repeat through the weekend. Please refer the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO header FZNT02 KNHC MIAHSFAT2 or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the east Atlantic waters from the African coast near 05N06W to 02S14W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 04S39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 75 nm to north and south of the ITCZ mainly west of 28W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the section above for information about the Gale Warning currently in effect for the southwest Gulf waters. A cold front extends from the Florida Straits near 24N80W to 22N86W, then to the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N91W. Scattered showers are noted along the front. North of the front, fresh winds prevail across the majority of the basin. The front should exit the SE Gulf waters this morning. Strong high pressure will build across the area in the wake of the front through Thursday. Gale-force winds should diminish to strong winds today. Strong northerly winds behind the front will gradually diminish through tonight. The high pressure over the area will shift to east of the region by late Fri night, with fresh to locally strong return flow setting up over much of the western and central waters. The next cold front is anticipated to reach the NW Gulf waters this weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Satellite imagery shows scattered low-topped showers moving westward over the eastern Caribbean N of 15N between 60W-80W. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean today and then gradually dissipate over the area by Thursday. Building high pressure behind the front near Bermuda will accentuate the pressure gradient over the Caribbean, enhancing the tradewinds Thu night through at least Sun night. On those evenings, NE gales are possible off of the coast of Colombia. Please refer to the section above for information about the Gale Warning currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean waters. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends over the west Atlantic from a 998 mb low near 39N61W to 31N68W to 23N80W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm east of the front. Surface ridging prevails across much of the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 33N39W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 31N12W to 26N40W. The cold front over the west Atlantic will reach from near 23N65W to the Windward Passage on Thu. The front will then weaken and dissipate by late Fri night as high pressure behind it shifts eastward through Sat night. Benign weather conditions will prevail this weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA