000 AXNT20 KNHC 060539 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1239 AM EST Wed Mar 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...SW Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... Gale-force northerly winds are noted in scatterometer data over the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Seas are expected to peak to around 12-17 ft in this area. These winds are forecast to diminish to the strong category on Wed, with associated seas slowly subsiding. Please refer the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO header FZNT02 KNHC MIAHSFAT2 or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from NW Liberia near 06N11W to 01S17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm to north and 200 nm to the south of the ITCZ mainly west of 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the section above for information about the Gale Warning currently in effect for the southwest Gulf waters. A cold front extends from the Florida Straits near 25N80W to 22N90W, then to the coast of Mexico near 18N92W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted along the front. North of the front, fresh winds prevail across the majority of the basin. The front should exit the SE Gulf waters by early Wed. Strong high pressure will build across the area in the wake of the front through Thu. Gale force winds should diminish to strong winds by early Wed. Strong northerly winds behind the front will gradually diminish through late Wed night. The high pressure over the area will shift to east of the region by late Fri night, with fresh to locally strong return flow setting up over much of the western and central waters. The next cold front is anticipated to reach the NW Gulf waters this weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Satellite imagery shows scattered low-topped showers moving westward over the eastern Caribbean N of 15N between 60W-80W. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean tonight and then gradually dissipate over the area on Thu. Building high pressure behind the front near Bermuda will accentuate the pressure gradient over the Caribbean, enhancing the tradewinds Thu night through at least Sun night. On those evenings, NE gales are possible off of the coast of Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends over the west Atlantic from a 1004 mb low pressure near 32N71W to South Florida near 26N79W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm southeast of the front. Surface ridging prevails across much of the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 32N41W. To the east, a weakening cold front extends from 31N15W to 28N39W. Scattered showers are possible near the front. The cold front will reach from near 23N65W to the Windward Passage on Thu. The front will then weaken and dissipate by late Fri night as high pressure behind it shifts eastward through Sat night. Benign conditions will prevail this weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA