000 AXNT20 KNHC 060004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 704 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...SW Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... Gale force N to NW winds over the west-central Gulf of Mexico will be migrating toward the southwest Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. The gales over the SW Gulf will then continue through tonight. Seas are expected to peak to around 10-13 ft today in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. These gale force winds are forecast to diminish to strong winds on Wed, with associated seas slowly subsiding. Please refer the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO header FZNT02 KNHC MIAHSFAT2 or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from NW Liberia near 06N11W to 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Numerous moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 180 nm to north and 200 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 28W and the coast of South America near 46W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from southern Florida near 25N81W to 23N90W, then to the coast of Mexico near 18N93W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 20N92W to 18N92W. Another surface trough extends from 20N94W to 21N96W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from 22N-24N between 80W-85W. Scattered showers are also over Florida and elsewhere near the front and troughs. North of the front, fresh winds are in the eastern Gulf with strong winds in the east central Gulf, except for gale force winds over portions of the west-central and southwest Gulf. See section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the SW Gulf waters. The stationary front extends from S Florida to Bay of Campeche will begin moving again shortly and should exit the SE Gulf waters early Wed. Strong high pressure will build across the area in the wake of the front through Thu. Minimal gale force northwest to north winds are occurring over a small area of the SW Gulf but should diminish to strong winds early Wed. Strong northerly winds behind the front will gradually diminish through late Wed night. The high pressure over the area will shift to east of the region by late Fri night, with fresh to locally strong return flow setting up over much of the western and central waters. A new, but weaker, cold front is anticipated to reach the NW Gulf on Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Satellite imagery shows scattered low-topped showers moving westward over the eastern Caribbean N of 13N and E of 65W. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel tonight and then gradually dissipate over the NW Caribbean on Thu. Building high pressure behind the front near Bermuda will accentuate the pressure gradient over the Caribbean, enhancing the tradewinds Thu night through at least Sun night. On those evenings, NE gales are possible off of the coast of Colombia. No large long-period swell will impact the tropical N Atlantic for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends over the west Atlantic from a 1011 mb low pressure near 32N71W to South Florida near 26N79W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are 90 nm southeast of the front. Surface ridging prevails across much of the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 31N42W. A cold front extends from 31N18W to 27N29W to 27N38W then transitions to a stationary front to 28N41W. Scattered showers are possible near the front. A stationary front extending from from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas and to South Florida will begin moving eastward as a cold front and reach from near 23N65W to the Windward Passage on Thu. The front will then weaken and dissipate by late Fri night as high pressure behind it shifts eastward through Sat night. Quiescent conditions will prevail on Sat through at least Sun night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres