000 AXNT20 KNHC 051047 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 547 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...SW Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... The pressure gradient has tighten over the SW Gulf of Mexico in the wake of a cold front that is currently pushing east-southeast across the basin. Gale force winds were noted in scatterometer data over sections of the SW Gulf of Mexico south of 22N and west of 95W. Seas are expected to peak to around 11-13 ft in this area. These winds are forecast to diminish to strong winds on Wednesday, with associated seas slowly subsiding. Please refer the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO header FZNT02 KNHC MIAHSFAT2 or at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 06N10W to 03N17W, where recent scatterometer data indicated the ITCZ begins and continues to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is within 105 nm north and south of the ITCZ mainly west of 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the section above for details about the Gale Warning currently in effect for the SW Gulf waters. A cold front extends across southwest Florida near 26N81W and continues southwest to 23N94W, to the coast of Mexico near 18N94W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 22N92W to 19N93W. Scattered showers are possible along the trough and the front. A secondary push of cold air has been analyzed as a surface trough across the Florida Peninsula. The trough extends along 29N between 80W-83W. To the SW, a thermal trough extends across the Yucatan Channel along 89W with no convection. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh northerly winds in the wake of the front, while gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted ahead of the front over the southern half of the basin. The front will continue to move across the remainder of the Gulf and SE of the area through Wednesday. Strong winds and high seas will the front, with gale conditions expected near Veracruz Mexico continuing today. High pressure will build over the Gulf behind the front and prevail through the rest of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Satellite imagery shows scattered low-topped showers moving westward with the moderate to fresh trades across the northern half of the basin. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over some sections of Colombia, reaching its adjacent waters mainly south of 11N. Fresh northeast to east winds are noted over the south-central Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong trade winds will prevail across the south-central Caribbean through mid-week. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean on Wednesday. The front will stall from the Windward passage to E Honduras Thursday, then weaken by Thursday night. Gale-force winds are possible near the coast of Colombia by the end of the week and the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front has emerged off the southeastern United States coast, and extends from a 984 mb low north of our area. The front extends from 31N70W to 27N80W. Scattered showers are along the front. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 33N45W. A frontal boundary extends along 30N, analyzed as a cold front between 28W- 39W, and as a stationary front from that point to 48W. Satellite imagery, in various enhancements, depict Saharan dust covering much of the region north of 10N east of 40W. The cold front over the west Atlantic will shift eastward and stall from 23N65W to the Windward passage on Thursday, then weaken and dissipate by Friday evening. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA