000 AXNT20 KNHC 050535 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1235 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...SW Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... The pressure gradient will tighten over the SW Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday in the wake of a cold front that is currently pushing east-southeast across the basin. This is forecast to lead to gale force winds over sections of the SW Gulf of Mexico south of 21N and west of 95W by Tuesday afternoon. Seas winds are expected to peak to around 11-13 ft in this area. These winds are forecast to diminish to strong winds on Wednesday, with associated seas slowly subsiding. Please refer the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO header FZNT02 KNHC MIAHSFAT2 or at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 06N10W to 03N17W, where recent scatterometer data indicated the ITCZ begins and continues to the coast of Brazil near 04S39W. A surface trough is analyzed from 02N40W to 00N42W. Scattered moderate convection is within 350 nm north and south of the ITCZ mainly west of 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the section above for details about the Gale Warning currently in effect for the SW Gulf waters. A cold front extends across central Florida near 27N82W and continues southwest to 24N93W, to the coast of Mexico near 19N96W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 27N82W to 25N89W to 19N95W. Scattered showers are possible along the trough and the front. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh northerly winds in the wake of the front, while gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted ahead of the front over the southern half of the basin. The front will continue to move across the remainder of the Gulf and SE of the area through Wednesday. Strong winds and high seas will follow west of the front, with gale conditions expected near Veracruz Mexico on Tuesday. High pressure will build over the Gulf behind the front and prevail through the rest of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Satellite imagery shows scattered low-topped showers moving westward with the moderate to fresh trades across the northern half of the basin. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over some sections of Colombia, reaching its adjacent waters mainly south of 11N. Fresh northeast to east winds are noted over the south-central Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong trade winds will prevail across the south-central Caribbean through mid-week. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean on Wednesday. The front will stall from the Windward passage to E Honduras Thursday, then weaken by Thursday night. Gale force winds are possible near the coast of Colombia by the end of the week and the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front has emerged off the southeastern United States coast, and extends from a 984 mb low north of our area reaching the basin near 31N75W to 28N80W. A pre-frontal trough is seen within 90 nm southeast of the front from 31N73W to 28N80W. Scattered showers are along the front and trough. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 33N47W. Satellite imagery, in various enhancements, depict Saharan dust covering much of the region north of 10N east of 40W. The cold front will shift eastward and stall from 23N65W to the Windward passage on Thursday, then weaken and dissipate by Friday evening. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA