000 AXNT20 KNHC 050012 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 712 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...SW Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... The pressure gradient will significantly tighten over the SW Gulf of Mexico on Tue in the wake of a cold front that is currently pushing east-southeast across the Gulf waters. This is forecast to lead to nw minimal gale force winds over sections of the SW Gulf of Mexico outlined as south of 21N and west of 95W Tue afternoon. Seas with these gale force winds are expected to peak to around 11 or 13 ft. The gale force winds are forecast to diminish to strong winds on Wed, with associated seas slowly subsiding. Please refer the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO header FZNT02 KNHC MIAHSFAT2 or at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from Sierra Leone near 06N11W to 03N17W, where recent scatterometer data indicated the ITCZ begins and continues to 02S30W to the coast of Brazil near 04S37W. Scattered moderate convection is within 350 nm north and south of the ITCZ between 24W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across central Florida near 27N82W southwest, and continues southwest 24N90W to the coast of Mexico near 20N97W. Current satellite imagery defines the leading edge of the frontal boundary as a narrow line of low clouds (rope cloud type feature over the open Gulf waters. Isolated showers are possible with these clouds. Two pre-frontal trough are noted out ahead of the cold front from near Melbourne, Florida to 25N85W. The second trough is located over the south central Gulf of Mexico extending from 24N90W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible along both troughs. The satellite imagery shows broken to overcast low clouds with embedded areas of light rain and drizzle behind the front. Some of surface observations along and just inland the central and southern Texas coast are reporting reduced visibilities in low cloud ceilings. Strong high pressure ushering in a very cold arctic air mass across the central United States is surging southward behind the front across the western Gulf and eastern Mexico. The tight pressure gradient between the high pressure and the front is bringing strong north to northeast winds across the central and western Gulf waters. South and southeast of the front, winds are southerly in the 10-15 kt range. The cold front is forecast to slowly move across the remainder of the Gulf exiting the area on Wed. Strong winds and high seas will follow west of the front, with gale conditions expected near Veracruz Mexico beginning around 21Z on Tue. High pressure in the wake of the front will remain across the region through the rest of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Satellite imagery shows patches of low-level moisture moving westward with the moderate to fresh trade winds present over the north-central, eastern and northwestern sections of the sea. Scattered showers are possible with some these clouds. Low-level wind speed convergence has resulted in broken to scattered low- level clouds with isolated showers along and near the coasts of Costa Rica and northern Panama. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over some sections of Colombia. Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds are over the south-central Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong trade winds will prevail across the south-central Caribbean through Wed. Easterly swell will prevail across tropical Atlantic waters through Wed. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean Wed. The front will stall from the Windward passage to E Honduras Thu, then weaken Thu night. Gale force winds are possible near the coast of Colombia Thu night, Fri night, and Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front has emerged off the southeastern United States coast, and extends from a 980 mb low at 43N64W southwestward to inland central Florida near 28N80W. A pre-frontal trough is seen within about 90 nm southeast of the front east of 76W to 80W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the cold front east of 70W, while scattered showers are elsewhere near the front. Isolated showers are possible along the trough. A 1028 mb high near 28N46W extends a ridge westward across much of the basin. Satellite imagery, in various enhancements, depicts Saharan dust covering much of the region north of 10N east of 35W. The forecasts calls for high pressure over the forecast waters to continue to retreat eastward allowing for the aforementioned cold front to become stationary from near 23N65W to the Windward passage Thu, then weaken and dissipate by Fri evening. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres