000 AXNT20 KNHC 041804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 104 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SW Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: The pressure gradient will significantly tighten over the SW Gulf of Mexico on Tue in the wake of a cold front that is currently pushing east-southeast across the Gulf waters. This is forecast to lead to minimal gale force northwest winds over the section of the SW Gulf of Mexico outlined as south of 21N and west of 95W beginning around 21Z Tue or shortly afterwards. Seas with these gale force winds are expected to peak to around 11 or 12 ft. The gale force winds are forecast to diminish to strong winds on Wed, with associated seas slowly subsiding. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N17W, where recent scatterometer data indicated the ITCZ begins and continues to 02S30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S38W. Scattered moderate convection is within 300 nm north of the ITCZ between 33W-39W and within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 22W-27W. Similar activity is removed to the north of the ITCZ within 30 nm of a line from 03N26W to 02N35W, and from just south of the equator at 41W to 03S west to the coast of South America. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 04/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from northeast Florida near 32N79W southwestward to across north-central Florida, and continues southwest to near Brooksville, Florida and to 26N89W, to 24N95W and southwestward to inland the coast of Mexico at Tuxpan. Current satellite imagery defines the leading edge of the frontal boundary as a narrow line of low clouds (rope cloud type feature over the open Gulf waters. Isolated showers are possible with these clouds. A pre-frontal trough is noted out ahead of the cold front from near Melbourne, Florida to Sarasota and to the far eastern Gulf at 26N87W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen within 30 nm of 26N87W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the remainder of the trough. The satellite imagery shows broken to overcast low clouds with embeddedareas of light rain and drizzle behind the front. Some of surface observations along and just inland the central and southern Texas coast are reporting reduced visibilities in low cloud ceilings. Strong high pressure ushering in a very cold arctic air mass across the central United States is surging southward behind the front across the western Gulf and eastern Mexico. The tight pressure gradient between the high pressure and the front is bringing strong north to northeast winds across the central and western Gulf waters. South and southeast of the front, winds are southerly in the 10-15 kt range. The cold front is forecast to slowly move across the remainder of the Gulf exiting the area on Wed. Strong winds and high seas will follow west of the front, with gale conditions expected near Veracruz Mexico beginning around 21Z on Tue as described above under Special features. High pressure in the wake of the front will remain across the region through the rest of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Satellite imagery shows patches of low-level moisture moving westward with the moderate to fresh trade winds present over the north-central, eastern and northwestern sections of the sea. Scattered showers are possible with some these clouds. Low-level wind speed convergence has resulted in broken to scattered low-level clouds with isolated showers along and near the coasts of Costa Rica and northern Panama. Isolated showers are possible over sections of Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over some sections of Colombia. Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds are over the south-central Caribbean. The forecast calls for the fresh to locally strong winds to continue through Wed. Easterly swell will prevail across tropical Atlantic waters through Wed before subsiding. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Wed. The front will become stationary from near the Windward passage to eastern Honduras Thu, then weaken Thu night. Near gale force winds are expected along the coast of Colombia Tue night and Wed night, then gale force winds will be possible near the coast of Colombia Thu night and Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front has emerged off the southeastern United States coast, and extends from a 1011 mb low at 32N77W southwestward to inland Florida near Daytona beach as of 15Z this morning. A pre-frontal trough is seen within about 90 nm southeast of the front east of 76W and within 60 nm south of the front west of 76W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the cold front east of 77W, while scattered showers are elsewhere near the front. Isolated showers are possible along the trough. A 1028 mb high near 28.5N46W extends a ridge westward across much of the basin. Another 1028 mb high pressure center is just north of the area at 33N51W. It is moving to the southeast around 20 kt. Satellite imagery, in various enhancements, depicts Saharan dust covering much of the region north of 10N east of 35W. The forecasts calls for high pressure over the forecast waters to continue to retreat eastward allowing for the aforementioned cold front to become stationary from near 23N65W to the Windward passage Thu, then weaken and dissipate by Fri evening. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Aguirre