000 AXNT20 KNHC 041119 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 619 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... On 05/2100 UTC a Gale is forecast over the SW Gulf of Mexico. Cold front 25N81W to 21N95W to 18N93W. Gale with NW winds S of 20.5N and W of 95W, with seas to 11 ft. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02S30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S38W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 02N-10S between 31W-44W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 04/0900 UTC, a cold front extends from N Florida near 31N82.5W to the north central Gulf of Mexico near 26N90W to S of Tampico Mexico near 21N97W. A squall line is E of the front from 31N80W to 28N85W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm S of the squall line. 25-30 kt N winds are presently N of the front. Elsewhere, 10-15 kt southerly winds are S of the front and squall line, with mostly fair weather. The cold front will continue to slowly cross the Gulf waters and pass SE of the area Wed. Strong winds and building seas will follow west of the front, with gale conditions expected over the waters near Veracruz Mexico Tue night. High pres ridging will then build over the Gulf in the wake of the front and prevail through the remainder of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers are moving W with the tradewinds over the eastern and central Caribbean E of 80W, to include Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and E Cuba. These showers are being enhanced by upper level diffluence E of a sharp upper level trough over the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, scattered showers are inland over Central America from Nicaragua to W Panama. Fresh to locally strong trade winds will prevail across the south-central Caribbean through Wed, then increase in areal coverage across the central Caribbean Thu. Easterly swell will prevail across tropical Atlantic waters through Wed before subsiding. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Wed. The front will stall from the Windward passage to E Honduras Thu, then weaken Thu night. Near gale force winds are expected along the coast of Colombia Tue night and Wed night, then gale force winds will be possible near the coast of Colombia Thu night and Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic N of 28N and W of 75W due to a squall line. A 1028 mb high near 30N24W extends a surface ridge W across much of the basin. Saharan dust covers much of the region north of 10N east of 35W. High pressure over the forecast waters will retreat E and allow a cold front to enter the NW waters this morning. The front will shift E and eventually stall from near 23N65W to the Windward passage Thu, then weaken and dissipate by Fri evening. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa