000 AXNT20 KNHC 040532 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1232 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... On 06/0000 UTC a Gale is forecast over the SW Gulf of Mexico. Cold front 24.5N81W to 20.5N94W to 18.5N94W. Gale with NW winds S of 21N W of front with seas to 11 ft. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Liberia near 06N11W to 02N13W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02S20W to the coast of Brazil near 05S37W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N -09S between 30W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 04/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from N Florida near 31N83W to the north central Gulf of Mexico near 28N90W to N of Tampico Mexico near 23N98W. A squall line is E of the front from N Florida near 31N82W to 28N87W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the squall line. 25-30 kt N winds are presently N of the front. 10-15 kt southerly winds are S of the front and squall line, with mostly fair weather. The cold front will continue to slowly shift across the Gulf waters, moving SE of the area Wed. Strong winds and building seas will follow west of the front, with gale conditions expected over the waters near Veracruz Mexico Tue night. High pres will then build in the wake of the front and prevail through the remainder of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers are moving W with the tradewinds over the eastern and central Caribbean E of 80W, to include Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and E Cuba. These showers are being enhanced by upper level diffluence E of a sharp upper level trough over the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, scattered showers are inland over Central America from Nicaragua to W Panama. Fresh to locally strong trade winds will prevail across the south- central Caribbean through Wed, then increase in areal coverage across the central Caribbean Thu. Easterly swell will prevail across tropical Atlantic waters through Wed before subsiding. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Wed. The front will stall from the Windward passage to E Honduras Thu, then weaken Thu night. Gale force winds are possible near the coast of Colombia Thu night and Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic along the N Florida coast associated with squall line. A 1028 mb high near 31N24W extends a surface ridge across much of the basin. Saharan dust covers much of the region north of 10N east of 35W. High pressure over the forecast waters will retreat eastward tonight. A cold front will move into the NW waters Mon. The front will shift E, stalling from near 23N65W to the Windward passage Thu, then dissipating through Fri. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa