000 AXNT20 KNHC 032359 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 659 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Liberia, Africa near 04N08W to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03S29W to the coast of Brazil near 02S41W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N -07S between 32W-38W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging over the SW N Atlc waters extends an axis across Florida into the eastern half of the basin supporting light to moderate return flow across the Gulf. A slightly tighter pressure gradient over the western gulf due to a cold front extending from SW Louisiana to southern Texas supports moderate to locally fresh NW winds along portion of the Texas coast. Observations along the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and NE Mexico continue to show areas of patchy to dense fog, which is supported by shallow moisture advecting from the Caribbean. A line of strong showers and thunderstorms is across Georgia into the Panhandle of Florida and the Louisiana coast. With deep layer dry air as indicated by water vapor imagery, fair conditions prevail elsewhere. The cold front will gradually move across the Gulf and exit the area Wed. Strong thunderstorms ahead of the front will make its way into the northern Gulf tonight. Strong winds and building seas will follow in the wake of the front, with gale conditions possible over the waters near Veracruz Mexico Tue night. High pressure over the southern United States will shift E toward the western Atlantic Wed through Thu night and allow winds to subside and veer from NE to SE. CARIBBEAN SEA... Shallow moisture and a middle to upper level trough over the NW Caribbean continue to support isolated showers across Jamaica and adjacent waters as well as Nicaragua adjacent waters. Similar weather conditions are in the SW basin being supported by a 1008 mb low over NW Colombia. The gradient between the low and high pressure to the north will continue to support fresh to locally strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean through Fri. Gale force winds are possible near the coast of Colombia Thu night while strong winds are expected to the lee of Cuba and over the Windward passage. Otherwise, a cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Wed, then stall and weaken across the NW Caribbean through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1028 mb high pressure remains in control across much of the basin. The high pres over the forecast waters will retreat eastward tonight. A cold front will move into the NW waters Mon. The front will shift E, stalling from near 23N65W to the Windward passage Thu, then dissipating through Fri. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres