000 AXNT20 KNHC 031800 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Liberia, Africa near 04N08W to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03S30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is S of 03N W of 22W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging over the SW N Atlc waters extends an axis across Florida into the eastern half of the basin supporting light to moderate return flow in that portion of the basin. A slightly tighter pressure gradient over the western gulf due to a cold front extending from SW Louisiana to southern Texas supports moderate to locally fresh return winds over the SW basin. Observations along the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and NE Mexico continue to show dense fog, which is supported by shallow moisture advecting from the Caribbean. With deep layer dry air as indicated by water vapor imagery, fair conditions prevail elsewhere. The cold front will gradually move across the Gulf and exit the area Wed. Strong winds and building seas will follow in the wake of the front, with gale conditions possible over the waters near Veracruz Mexico Tue night. High pressure over the southern United States will shift E toward the western Atlantic Wed through Thu night and allow winds to subside and veer from NE to SE. CARIBBEAN SEA... Shallow moisture and a middle to upper level trough over the NW Caribbean continue to support isolated showers across Jamaica and adjacent waters as well as Nicaragua adjacent waters. Similar weather conditions are in the SW basin being supported by a 1011 mb low over NW Colombia. The gradient between the low and high pressure to the north will continue to support fresh to locally strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean through Fri. Gale force winds are possible near the coast of Colombia Thu night while strong winds are expected to the lee of Cuba and over the Windward passage. Otherwise, a cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Wed, then stall and weaken across the NW Caribbean through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A ridge over the western Atlantic will shift eastward ahead of a cold front expected to move off northern Florida Mon. The front will extend from 31N73W to southern Florida Tue, from 31N66W to western Cuba Wed, then weaken from 25N65W to eastern Cuba Thu. Strong winds and building seas are expected N of 27N Wed through Thu. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos