000 AXNT20 KNHC 031042 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 542 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N12W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03S30W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N-08S between 26W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A warm front is just inland over the Louisiana and Texas coasts. Further inland a cold front is over central Texas approaching the coast. Observations along the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and NE Mexico indicate persistent dense fog. Coastal stations are reporting visibility ranging from one quarter mi to 2 mi. Radar imagery is showing moderate showers and a few thunderstorms over the NE Gulf of Mexico N of 28N and over N Florida. Fair conditions prevail elsewhere over the Gulf with moderate SE winds and seas 2 to 6 ft. Highest seas are along the Texas coast. A cold front will move SE into the NW Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. The front will gradually move across the Gulf and exit the area Wed. Strong winds and building seas will follow in the wake of the front, with gale conditions possible over the waters near Veracruz Mexico Tue night. High pressure over the southern United States will shift E toward the western Atlantic Wed through Thu night and allow winds to subside and veer from NE to SE. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers are moving W with the tradewinds over the eastern and central Caribbean E of 80W. These showers are being enhanced by upper level diffluence E of a sharp upper level trough over the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, scattered showers are inland over Central America from Honduras to W Panama. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over the south central Caribbean through Wed, then increase in coverage across the central Caribbean Thu. Winds will freshen over the eastern Caribbean Mon night and Tue. East swell will propagate through the tropical Atlantic waters Sun through Tue, then subside on Wed. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Wed. The front will stall from the Windward passage to E Honduras Thu, then weaken Thu night. Strong winds will be possible to the lee of Cuba and over the Windward passage Thu and Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 27N66W to 24N70W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. Another surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 27N49W to 22N55W. Scattered showers are also within 60 nm of this trough. A 1028 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 32N19W. Saharan dust covers much of the region north of 10N east of 35W. Recent scatterometer passes indicate fresh to occasionally strong trade winds. Of note in the upper levels, upper level diffluence is over the central Atlantic N of 25N between 50W-64W due to a sharp upper level trough over the W Atlantic. Over the W Atlantic, a high pressure ridge will shift E today and tonight. A cold front will move over the NW waters Mon. The front will shift E and eventually reach from near 23N65W to the Windward passage Thu. Strong winds preceding and following the front will affect the waters to the north of 29N tonight through Mon night. A reinforcing surge of cold air behind the cold front will generate strong winds and building seas for the waters N of 27N Wed through Thu. NW swell will maintain seas of 8 to 9 ft for the waters N of 22N and E of 70W Thu night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa