000 AXNT20 KNHC 030534 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1234 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N23W to 03S30W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N-10S between 23W-44W. GULF OF MEXICO... A warm front is just inland over the Louisiana and Texas coasts. Further inland a cold front is over central Texas approaching the coast. Observations along the coast of Texas indicate persistent dense fog. Offshore platforms indicate 3 to 5 nm in fog. Regional radar is showing moderate showers and a few thunderstorms moving over the NE Gulf of Mexico N of 27N and over N Florida. Fair conditions prevail elsewhere with moderate SE winds 1 to 3 ft seas. A cold front will enter the far NW Gulf Sun afternoon. The front will gradually move eastward across the Gulf, shifting E of the area Wed. Strong winds and building seas will follow behind the front, with gale conditions possible over the waters near Veracruz Mexico Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers are moving W with the tradewinds over the E Caribbean E of 70W. These showers are being enhanced by upper level diffluence E of a sharp upper level trough over the W Caribbean. Elsewhere, scattered showers are inland over Central America from Honduras to W Panama. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over the south central Caribbean through Wed, then increase in coverage across the central Caribbean Thu. Winds will freshen over the eastern Caribbean Mon night and Tue. East swell will propagate through the tropical Atlantic waters Sun through Tue, then subside on Wed. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Wed. The front will stall from the Windward passage to E Honduras Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1021 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 28N75W. A surface trough is further E from 27N66W to 24N70W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. A 1030 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 33N20W. Saharan dust covers much of the region north of 10N east of 35W. Recent scatterometer passes indicate fresh to occasionally strong trade winds, with seas generally 8 to 12 ft in NE swell. Of note in the upper levels, upper level diffluence is over the central Atlantic N of 25N between 50W-64W due to a sharp upper level trough over the W Atlantic. Over the W Atlantic, high pressure will prevail over the forecast waters through Sun before retreating eastward. A cold front will move into the NW waters Mon. The front will shift E and reach from near 23N65W to the Windward passage Thu. Strong winds preceding and following the front will affect the waters to the north of 28N Tue night through Wed night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa