000 AXNT20 KNHC 030002 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 702 PM EST Sat Mar 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains in Africa. The ITCZ continues from 05N10W to 00N23W to the coast of Brazil near 05S34W. Scattered moderate convection are active from 06S to the Equator between 25W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front enters the NW Gulf of Mexico near 30N87W to 27N97W. Observations along the coast of Texas indicate persistent dense fog north of the stationary front. Offshore platforms indicate 3 to 5 nm in fog, south of the frontal boundary. Regional radar is showing moderate showers and a few thunderstorms in the vicinity of the frontal boundary, moving onshore near Panama City Florida, and reaching across north central Florida to Jacksonville. Fair conditions prevail elsewhere with moderate SE winds 1 to 3 ft seas. For the forecast, the stationary front over the NW Gulf will weaken and move inland as a warm front tonight. A cold front will enter the far NW Gulf Sun. The front will gradually move eastward across the Gulf, shifting E of the area Wed. Strong winds and building seas will follow behind the front, with gale conditions possible over the waters near Veracruz Mexico Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A sharp mid to upper trough reaching from off the east coast of Florida to the Gulf of Honduras is supporting a surface trough from the southern Bahamas through eastern Cuba to just east of Jamaica. Scattered showers are noted through the Jamaica Channel between Jamaica and southeast Cuba to as far west as south of Grand Cayman Island. Regional radar is showing isolated showers across the Windward and Leeward Islands in moderate trade wind flow, except for scattered showers farther south over Trinidad and Tobago where fresh trade winds are noted. Generally fair conditions are noted elsewhere. Scatterometer data is indicating fresh to strong trade winds are noted across the south central Caribbean, likely reaching near gale off the coast of Colombia. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over the south central Caribbean through Wed, then increase in coverage across the central Caribbean Thu. Winds will freshen over the eastern Caribbean Mon night and Tue. East swell will propagate through the tropical Atlantic waters Sun through Tue, then subside on Wed. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Wed. The front will stall from the Windward passage to E Honduras Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An mid to upper level disturbance move over the southeast United States is support scattered showers and thunderstorms off the northeast coast of Florida, ahead of a frontal boundary stalling across Georgia. Farther east, a weak ridge persists along 28N, maintaining gentle to light winds across the Atlantic north of 20N, and moderate to fresh trades farther south. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over open waters west of 65W, and 6 to 9 ft between 35W and 65W. Over the tropical Atlantic, divergence aloft on the southeast side of an upper trough along with modest trade wind convergence is supporting scattered showers and a few thunderstorms north of the ITCZ west of 27W. Farther east, Saharan dust covers much of the region north of 10N east of 35W. Recent scatterometer passes indicate fresh to occasionally strong trade winds, with seas generally 8 to 12 ft in NE swell. For the forecast over the W Atlantic, high pressure will prevail over the forecast waters through Sun before retreating eastward. A cold front will move into the NW waters Mon. The front will shift E and reach from near 23N65W to the Windward passage Thu. Strong winds preceding and following the front will affect the waters to the north of 28N Tue night through Wed night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres