000 AXNT20 KNHC 020001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 701 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from western Africa near 05N10W to 00N22W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 100 nm of the ITCZ from 03S-00N between 25W and 32W. GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing across the northeastern Gulf coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. This activity is located well to the east of the surface front and is primarily associated with a nearby mid-to upper-level shortwave trough. The surface stationary front currently lies from south-central Louisiana near 29N91W to the coast of Matamoros, Mexico near 25N97W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the front north of 28N94W. A stationary front extending from south-central Louisiana to NE Mexico will dissipate on Sat. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sun. The front will shift across the Gulf, moving SE of the area Wed. Strong northerly winds and building seas will follow this front, with gale conditions possible over a part of the SW Gulf W of the front Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tranquil weather conditions continue across much of the Caribbean region today supported by abundant dry and stable air in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere and surface high pressure ridging extending into the area from the central Atlantic. There could be some shower activity over the northwestern Caribbean, where satellite images show moisture aloft streaming in from the eastern Pacific. Trade winds are fresh to strong area-wide, with the strongest winds (around 25 kt) near the northern coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south central Caribbean through Wed. Winds will freshen over the eastern Caribbean Mon night and Tue. Long period northerly swell will propagate through tropical Atlantic waters and the Caribbean Passages through Sat. E swell will move into the tropical Atlantic waters Sun night through Tue night and subside Wed. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends into the area from 30N65W to 27N71W. Scattered showers are within the boundary. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the region supported by a 1032 mb high near 34N21W. This surface high pressure and stable air in the middle- and upper-levels of the atmosphere are supporting fair weather across the majority of the region today. The primary marine hazard is the widespread northwestern swell that is currently affecting much of the central and eastern Atlantic. High pres will prevail over the forecast waters through Sun. A cold front will move off the southeast United States coast on Mon. The front will move across the forecast waters, extending from near Bermuda to central Cuba on Wed. Strong southwest winds will precede the front over the northern waters. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres