731 AXNT20 KNHC 010003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 703 PM EST Thu Feb 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from West Africa near 09N13W to 02N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N19W to the coast of Brazil near 04S37W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 06S- 00N between 35W-40W and 03N-04N between 11W-14W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb high is located in the east central Gulf near 25N83W. Winds are quiescent today, being gentle breeze or weaker across the Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present within 100 nm of the Texas, Louisiana coast ahead of the cold front. Elsewhere, fair weather conditions prevails across the basin. High pres will prevail across the E Gulf through late Sat before shifting eastward into the W Atlc. The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf Sun. The front will reach from near the Florida Big Bend to the SW Gulf Mon, and from S Florida to the SW Gulf Tue. Gale conditions are possible over the SW Gulf W of the front Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... A moderate pressure gradient forced by 1031 mb Bermuda high near 31N45W and troughing over Colombia is producing generally moderate to strong breeze tradewinds across the Caribbean. Winds are enhanced up to near gale off of the Colombian coast, as observed by the scatterometer pass. No significant deep convection is occurring within the subsident environment of the Caribbean, though there are scattered showers impacting the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica. Fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean will diminish across all but the southern Caribbean tonight through late Sun as weak high pressure ridge dominates the SW N Atlc. Winds will freshen late on Mon as the ridge strengthens. Long period NW to N swell will propagate through the tropical Atlantic waters and the Caribbean Passages through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A trough that was present east of Florida previously has evolved into a cold front and extends from 30N72W, across the NW Bahamas, and to 23N80W in northern Cuba. Moderate scattered deep convection exists within 180 nm of the front north of 28N. Scatterometer data show SW winds to 30 kt ahead of the front, but only W-NW winds up to 20 kt behind the front. Farther east a second cold front enters our area at 31N36W and extends west-southwest to 28N41W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 25N51W. Winds are moderate breeze or weaker in association with this front. Scattered showers are present within 90 nm of the front. Long period NW to N swell of 10-18 ft is currently affecting waters from 20N-31N between 35W- 60W, highest north of 25N and between 40W-50W. A cold front extends from 31N71W to 23N80W. The southern part of the front will stall and dissipate while the northern part of the front shifts eastward across the northern forecast waters. A second low pressure system will develop off the SE U.S. coast early Fri and move eastward through the weekend, clipping the northern waters. Long period NW to N swell will propagate through the tropical Atlantic waters east of 68W through Sat. A cold front will move into the NW part of the forecast waters late Mon and shift across the northern waters through Tue. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres