000 AXNT20 KNHC 281730 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1230 PM EST Thu Feb 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from West Africa near 07N12W to 02N17W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 00N43W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 00N- 03N between 20W-33W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb high is located in the east central Gulf near 26N85W. Winds are quiescent today, being gentle breeze or weaker across the Gulf. Scattered showers are present within 60 nm of the Texas coast in advance of a cold front. Patchy fog is also present in the NW Gulf within 120 nm of the Texas and Louisiana coasts. Weak high pres will prevail across the E Gulf through late Sat before shifting eastward into the W Atlc. Areas of dense coastal fog will prevail across the NW and N central portions this morning. Fresh to locally strong return flow will develop Sat night and Sun across the W Gulf ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf late Sun. The front will reach from near the Florida Big Bend to the SW Gulf Mon afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A moderate pressure gradient forced by 1030 mb Bermuda high near 32N53W and troughing over Colombia is producing generally moderate to strong breeze tradewinds across the Caribbean. Winds are enhanced up to near gale off of the Colombian coast, as observed by the latest scatterometer pass. No significant deep convection is occurring within the subsident environment of the Caribbean, though there are scattered showers impacting the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the central Caribbean through this afternoon. Winds will diminish across all but the southern Caribbean this afternoon through late Sun as a weak high pressure ridge dominates the SW N Atlc, then freshen late on Mon and the ridge strengthens. Long period NW to N swell will propagate through the tropical Atlantic waters and the Caribbean Passages today through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A trough that was present east of Florida previously has evolved into a cold front and as of 1500 UTC the front extends from 32N72W, across the NW Bahamas, and to 23N83W south of the Florida Keys. Moderate scattered deep convection exists within 60 nm of the front north of 28N, while scattered showers are present within 60 nm of the front from 25N-28N. Latest scatterometer data show SW winds to 30 kt ahead of the front, but only W-NW winds up to 20 kt behind the front. Farther east a second cold front enters our area at 32N36W and extends west- southwest to 26N49W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 25N60W. Winds are moderate breeze or weaker in association with this front. Scattered showers are present within 120 nm of the front. Long period NW to N swell of 10-18 ft is currently affecting waters from 20N-31N between 35W-60W, highest north of 25N and between 40W-50W. The cold front near the Bahamas will move eastward across the northern forecast waters today and Friday. Fresh to strong southerly winds on the east side of the front will affect the northern forecast waters through tonight. A second low pressure system will develop off the SE U.S. coast early Fri and move eastward through the weekend, clipping the northern waters with moderate westerly winds. Long period NW to N swell will propagate through the tropical Atlantic waters east of 68W today through Sat. A cold front will move into the NW part of the forecast waters late Mon. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are expected ahead of the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Landsea