000 AXNT20 KNHC 272341 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 641 PM EST Wed Feb 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from West Africa near 10N14W to 06N16W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 05S37W. that reaches the equator near 24W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 00N-04N east of 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across the northern Gulf from 29N95W to 28N90W to a 1019 mb low near 29N87W. The boundary then continues to 29N84, where it transitions into a warm front across the Florida Peninsula reaching the west Atlantic. Scattered showers are noted along and north of these fronts/low mainly west of 90W. Dense fog continues to be reported over the northwest Gulf waters near Texas and Louisiana. The front will weaken and drift northward through Thu. Areas of dense fog will diminish some across northern Gulf through this evening, and then redevelop tonight. Weak high pressure will then dominate the Gulf through the weekend. Fresh to locally strong return flow will develop Sat night and Sun across the western Gulf ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the northwest Gulf on Sun afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the 1028 mb Bermuda high and a trough over Colombia is producing generally moderate to strong breeze conditions across the Caribbean. Dry air and strong subsidence cover the entire basin. Scattered showers are moving W with the trade winds over the northeast Caribbean reaching Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica. High pressure will shift eastward through early Thu to maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean and Atlantic passages. Winds will diminish across all but the southern Caribbean Thu through early Sun as a weak high pressure ridge dominates the west Atlantic. Long period northerly swell will propagate across the tropical Atlantic waters and through the Caribbean Passages through Sat night, then subside by Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the central Atlantic from 31N44W to 24N60W, then becomes stationary from that point to 26N72W. Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm of the cold front. Winds are moderate breeze or weaker in association with these frontal boundaries. To the west, scattered moderate convection is observed west of 76W in association with a 1019 mb low centered near 30N80W and a surface trough extending from 27N80W to 26N77W. The frontal boundary will dissipate over the forecast waters tonight. The low pressure near Bahamas will shift northeast and exit the area by early Thu. Fresh to strong southerly winds on the east side of the low will affect the northern forecast waters through late Thu. A second low pressure system will develop off the SE U.S. coast early Fri and move eastward through the weekend, clipping the northern waters. A high pressure will build modestly westward along 26N during this time. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA