445 AXNT20 KNHC 271800 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1259 PM EST Wed Feb 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... Winds of gale force are likely occurring near the coast of Colombia this morning, though no observations were available near the area of strongest winds. Peak winds are forecast to diminish below gale force around 27/1800 UTC. Strong to near gale force winds are occurring elsewhere in the central Caribbean Sea. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from West Africa near 07N12W to 03N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ that reaches the equator near 24W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 00N-04N east of 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary frontal boundary extends from central Florida across the northern Gulf waters to the central Texas coast. A squall line propagated along the stationary front moving southeastward in the northeastern Gulf. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed north of 26N east of 92W. Away from the squall line and associated convection, winds are moderate breeze or weaker across the Gulf. Dense fog has been reported over the Gulf waters during the morning hours near Texas and Louisiana. The front will weaken and drift northward through Thu. Areas of dense fog will diminish some across NW and N central portions of the Gulf through this afternoon, and then redevelop again tonight. Weak high pres will then dominate the Gulf through Sun. Fresh to locally strong return flow will develop Sat night and Sun across the W Gulf ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Sun afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details about the Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean Sea, which will be expiring at 27/1800 UTC. The pressure gradient between the 1029 mb Bermuda high and a trough over Colombia is producing generally moderate to strong breeze conditions across the Caribbean this morning with up to gale over the central Caribbean. Dry air and strong subsidence cover the entire basin. Scattered showers are moving W with the trade winds over the NE Caribbean near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. High pressure located just W of Bermuda will shift eastward through early Thu to maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean and Atlc passages. Winds will diminish across all but the southern Caribbean Thu through early Sun as a weak high pressure ridge dominates the SW N Atlc. Long period N to NE swell will propagate across the tropical Atlantic waters and through the Caribbean Passages Wed through Sat night, then subside Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N40W west-southwestward to 25N60W where it becomes stationary to near 25N72W. Scattered showers exist within 60 nm of the front. Winds are moderate breeze or weaker in association with this frontal boundary. Numerous showers are currently occurring north just northeast of the Bahamas, north of 25N between 70W and 77W. The front will dissipate over the forecast waters late today. Weak low pressure will develop north of the NW Bahamas tonight and shift NE and exit the area early Thu. Fresh to strong southerly winds on the east side of the low will affect the northern forecast waters through late Thu. A second low pressure system will develop off the SE U.S. coast early Fri and move eastward through the weekend, clipping the northern waters. A high pressure will build modestly westward along 26N during this time. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Landsea