000 AXNT20 KNHC 261718 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1218 PM EST Tue Feb 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... A tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the Atlantic and lower pressure over N Colombia is forcing winds of near-gale force over the south-central Caribbean during the day, reaching gale-force mostly at night and early morning hours. These conditions will repeat again tonight into Wed morning. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 10N15W to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from that point westward to 01S28W to the coast of South America near 03S41W. Scattered moderate convection is seen with the monsoon trough from 00N-05N between 05W-21W. Scattered moderate convection associated with the ITCZ is from 04S-02N between 30W and the coast of South America. Isolated showers and thunderstorms cover the area from 02N-03N between 22W- 27W and from 04S-01N between 27W-30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A warm front extends from the Florida Keys near 25N80W to 27N86W to 27N90W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed along and north of the front reaching the northern Florida. A surface trough extends across the northwest coastline reaching northeastern Mexico. Another trough extends across the Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers are noted along both troughs. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds across most of the basin except west of 95W, where light winds prevail. The front will continue lifting north across the central and eastern Gulf through Wed night while dissipating. Moderate return flow will dominate the western Gulf of Mexico from Wed through Fri, as high pressure from the Atlantic builds westward into the east Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details about the Gale Warning currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean. Dry air and strong subsidence cover the entire basin. Mid to upper-level ridging covers the Caribbean. A line of scattered showers is moving west with the moderate to fresh trades affecting the Greater Antilles, while another line of showers is noted along and south of 12N affecting portions of South and Central America. High pressure along the SE U.S. coast will shift east across the west Atlantic through Wed behind a weakening cold front. This will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean, Gulf of Honduras, and Atlantic passages through early Thu. Strong winds off the coast of Colombia will increase to gale force during the overnight hours through tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal system extends across the west and central Atlantic. It is analyzed as a cold front from 31N51W to 25N69W, then as a stationary front from that point to 25N80W. Scattered showers are noted along the fronts. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 29N36W. The frontal boundary will continue weakening this afternoon through tonight, then lift northward across the western waters through Thu. Strong high pressure along the SE U.S. coast behind the front will shift eastward across the western Atlantic through late Wed and then into the central Atlantic on Thu. A coastal trough will develop just offshore of the SE U.S. coast late Wed, and then shift eastward across the northern waters Thu through Fri. High pressure will build back toward the WSW underneath the shifting trough and into the Bahamas late Thu through Sat night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA