000 AXNT20 KNHC 260534 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1234 AM EST Tue Feb 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... A tight pressure gradient between a 1027 mb central Atlantic high centered near 28N42W and lower pressure over N Colombia is forcing winds of near-gale force over the south-central Caribbean and reaching gale force just north of Colombia, mostly at night and early morning. The trend of diurnally pulsing winds will continue through tonight/Wed morning. The gale that is currently occurring off the N coast of Colombia is forecast to end on 26/1800 UTC. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 06N10W to 02N24W. The ITCZ continues from that point westward to 01S31W to the coast of South America near 03S41W. Scattered moderate convection is seen with the monsoon trough from 01N-05N between 04W-22W. Scattered moderate convection associated with the ITCZ is from 07S-03S between 30W-36W, and from 03S-01N between 37W and the coast of South America. Isolated showers and thunderstorms cover the area from 03S-03N between 22W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is over the Straits of Florida from 24N80W to 24N84W. A stationary front continues to 24N88W. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are over the central Gulf N of 24N between 85W-93W, including over southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. Isolated showers are seen N of 24N and W of 93W. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh to locally strong E winds over the Gulf of Mexico E of 90W. The front over the SE Gulf will weaken early this morning. The frontal remnants will lift back to the north across the central and eastern Gulf as a warm front from early this morning through Wed night while dissipating. Moderate return flow will dominate the western Gulf of Mexico from Wed through Fri, as high pressure from the Atlantic Ocean builds westward across the area. CARIBBEAN SEA... The latest ASCAT pass shows trade winds near gale force over the central Caribbean Sea south of 15N to the coast of Colombia and W Venezuela. Moderate trades are seen over the NW Caribbean W of 80W from 17N to S Cuba. Patches of isolated showers are moving W with the trade winds mostly over the E Caribbean E of 70W and also just south of Hispaniola. In the upper levels, a large upper level high is centered over the SW Caribbean near 12N79W. Strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean. Fresh to strong trade winds will dominate the central Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Honduras during the next several days due to strong high pressure over the western Atlantic. Strong winds off the coast of Colombia will increase to gale force during the overnight hours through tonight. Long period north to northeast swell in the Atlantic will subside gradually through Wed night, before another round of long period northwest to north swell propagates through those same waters beginning on Thu and continuing through Sat while it slowly subsides. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 31N59W to the Straits of Florida near 24N80W to 24N84W. Isolated showers are near and within 90 nm NW of the front between 65W and the NW Bahamas. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front E of 65W. A 1027 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 28N42W. A cold front is over the E Atlantic from 31N21W to 27N25W to 23N34W. Scattered showers are seen N of 26N between 25W-28W. A surface trough is ahead of the front from 30N19W to 25N24W. Scattered showers are near and just E of this trough. The cold front over the W Atlantic will become stationary and weaken near 26N through tonight. Strong high pressure behind the front will shift eastward across the western Atlantic through Thu. A coastal trough will develop just offshore of the southeastern U.S. on Wed, and then shift eastward across the northern waters through Fri. High pressure ridging will build back to the west across the forecast waters near 26N Fri through Sat night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen