000 AXNT20 KNHC 251139 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 639 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... A tight pressure gradient between a 1025 mb central Atlantic high centered near 29N50W and a 1006 mb low over N Colombia is forcing winds of near-gale force over the south-central Caribbean and reaching gale force just north of Colombia mostly at night. These overall conditions will continue through mid-week. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 07N12W to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of South America near 03S39W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 80 to 100 nm north and south of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from central Florida near 26N82W to 23N88W and is then stationary front north of the Yucatan Peninsula near 23N88W to the Bay of Campeche near 20N93W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of either side of the front. Mainly fresh to strong NE winds are behind the front. A surface trough extends from 22N86W across the Yucatan Peninsula. No significant convection is observed near the trough axis. A cold front extending from near Boca Grande, Florida to near 21N93W to the central Bay of Campeche will reach the Florida Bay to the central Bay of Campeche this evening, where it will briefly stall. The weakening front will lift northward late tonight through Tue and dissipate across the NE Gulf of Mexico by late Wed night. Moderate return flow will dominate the western Gulf of Mexico Wed through Fri as high pressure from the Atlantic builds westward across the area. CARIBBEAN SEA... Generally fair weather dominates the Caribbean with dry air entrenched in the middle to upper levels of the atmosphere. Only patches of scattered showers can be found over the basin and are moving W with the tradewinds. Moderate to fresh trade winds cover the eastern and north-central Caribbean. Strong to near gale- force trade winds cover the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh winds cover the western Caribbean. High pressure between Puerto Rico and Bermuda will shift east- northeastward and into the central Atlantic through tonight, then be replaced by stronger high pressure moving into the western Atlantic behind a cold front this afternoon through Wed. This will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras during the next several days. Strong winds off the coast of Colombia will increase to gale force during overnight hours through Tue night. Long period N to NE swell over the Atlantic will gradually subside through Wed night before another round of long period NW to N swell propagates through those same waters beginning on Thu. Refer to the special features section for more details. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends southwest across the western Atlantic and into the central Florida coast near 27N80W. Moderate to fresh southwest winds are N of 28 within about 300 nm W of the front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm of either side of the front. High pressure of 1025 mb centered near 29N50W dominates much of the remainder of the western and central Atlantic. Farther east, a cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N25W and extends to 20N40W and continues as a dissipating front to 19N49W. Fresh to occasionally strong winds are occurring within several hundred nm west and about 200 nm west of the cold front N of 21N. High pressure ridging extends from near 26N64W westward to the Florida Keys and will shift east-northeastward into the central Atlantic by this evening. A cold front from 31N74W to Fort Pierce, Florida will reach from Bermuda to the Florida Keys by late morning, before stalling and weakening along 26N through Tuesday night. High pressure behind the front will shift eastward across the western Atlantic this afternoon through Wed night. A coastal trough will develop just offshore of the southeastern U.S. Wed then shift eastward across the northern waters Thu through Fri. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres