000 AXNT20 KNHC 250600 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 AM EST Mon Feb 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... Strong high pressure building behind a cold front over the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to briefly produce minimal gale-force NW winds S of 20N to the west of the front through tonight. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... A tight pressure gradient between a 1026 mb central Atlantic high centered near 29N53W and a 1006 mb low over N Colombia is forcing winds of near-gale force over the south-central Caribbean and reaching gale force just north of Colombia mostly at night. These overall conditions will continue through mid-week, with the gale resuming this evening at 25/0000 UTC. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 10N14W to 02N23W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of South America near 02S39W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 02S between 26W and 34W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from central Florida near 27N82W to 23N89W to 20N93W and is then stationary across the Bay of Campeche to near 18N93W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of either side of the front. Mainly fresh to strong NE winds are behind the front. The winds S of 20N will further increase to gale-force briefly later this evening. Refer to the special features section for more details. The cold front will gradually stall and weaken from the Florida Keys to the SW Gulf of Mexico tonight into Mon. Gale force northerly winds behind the front offshore of Veracruz will continue through late tonight.The remnants of the front will move northward Mon night and Tue and dissipate across the NE Gulf of Mexico on Wed. Moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the western Gulf of Mexico from Wed through Fri as high pressure from the Atlantic builds westward across the area. CARIBBEAN SEA... Generally fair weather dominates the Caribbean with dry air entrenched in the middle to upper levels of the atmosphere. Only patches of scattered showers can be found over the basin and are moving W with the tradewinds. Moderate to fresh trade winds cover the eastern and north-central Caribbean. Strong to near gale- force trade winds cover the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh winds cover the western Caribbean. High pressure between Hispaniola and Bermuda will shift east- northeastward across the central Atlantic through Mon night, then be replaced by stronger high pressure moving into the western Atlantic Ocean behind a cold front Mon through Wed. This will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Honduras during the next several days. Strong winds off the coast of Colombia will increase to gale force during overnight hours through Wed night. Long period N to NE swell over the Atlantic will gradually subside through Wed night before another large set of long period NW to N swell propagates through those same waters beginning on Thu. Refer to the special features section for more details. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front over northern Florida is emerging just offshore of Daytona Beach. Fresh southwest winds are N of 27 within about 200 nm E of the front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm of either side of the front. High pressure of 1026 mb centered near 29N53W dominates much of the remainder of the western and central Atlantic. Farther east, a cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N26W and extends to 18N53W. Fresh to occasionally strong winds are occurring within several hundred nm west and about 200 nm east of the cold front N of 27N. High pressure ridging extends from near 26N65W southwest to the Florida Keys. The ridge will shift east-northeastward to the central Atlantic by Mon evening. A cold front will move off the NE Florida coast tonight and reach from Bermuda to the Florida Keys by Mon morning, before stalling and weakening along 26N through Tuesday night. High pressure behind the front will shift eastward across the western Atlantic from Tue through Wed night. A coastal trough will develop just offshore of the southeastern U.S. Wed night through Thu night. Another cold front will move off the NE Florida coast Wed night, and quickly move across the northern waters through Fri night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres