000 AXNT20 KNHC 241749 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1248 PM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front over the Gulf of Mexico is forecast on 24/2100 UTC to extend from 28N83W to 23N87W to 21N92W to 18.5N92W. A Gale with NW winds is forecast to be S of 20N W of front with seas 8 to 10 ft. Winds are forecast to be below Gale on 25/0600 UTC. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... A tight pressure gradient between a 1028 mb W Atlantic high centered near 33N58W and a 1010 mb low over N Colombia near 10N76W is forcing winds of near-gale force over the central Caribbean and reaching gale-force just north of Colombia mostly at night. These conditions will continue through mid-week. Presently, a Gale is on going and will end shortly on 24/1800 UTC. The Gale will resume on 25/0000 UTC. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 11N15W to 06N21W. The ITCZ continues from that point to near 02S30W to the coast of South America near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 03N-06S between 32W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 24/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from N florida near 30N84W to 25N90W to 22N95W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N95W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm NW of the front. A prefrontal surface trough is over the SW Gulf from 24N90W to 18N94W, depicted by a windshift and void of convection. Fair weather is noted over the SE Gulf. The cold front will move southeastward, and gradually stall and weaken from the Florida Keys to the SW Gulf of Mexico, from tonight into Monday. Gale force northerly winds are expected behind the front offshore of Veracruz from this evening through tonight. The remnants of the front will move northward, from Monday night through Tuesday, and dissipate across the NE Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the W Gulf of Mexico from Wednesday through Thursday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tradewinds dominate the Caribbean Sea ranging from Gale force winds along the coast of N Colombia to 10 kt winds along the S coast of Cuba. Patches of scattered showers are moving W with the tradewinds mostly over the E Caribbean E of 70W. More scattered showers are inland over Central America from Honduras to Panama. In the upper levels, a large upper level high is centered over N Colombia near 09N76W. Strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the central Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Honduras during the next several days. Strong winds off the coast of Colombia will increase to gale force during the nighttime hours from tonight through Wednesday night. Long period N to NE swell, that has been affecting the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea Passages east of 65W, has peaked and will subside slowly through Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The tail end of a warm front is over the W Atlantic from 31N66W to 28N64W. A 1028 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 33N58W. A cold front extends over the central Atlantic from 31N30W to 24N40W to 20N49W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm NW of the front. Over the W Atlantic, the surface ridge will shift ENE to the central Atlantic Ocean through Monday. A cold front will move off the NE Florida coast tonight and reach from Bermuda to the Florida Keys by Monday morning, before stalling and weakening along 26N through Tuesday night. High pressure behind the front will shift eastward across the W Atlantic Ocean from Tuesday through Wednesday night. A coastal trough will develop just offshore of the southeastern U.S. from Wednesday night through Thursday. Another cold front will move off the NE Florida coast on Thursday morning. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa