000 AXNT20 KNHC 241130 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 630 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front across the NW Gulf of Mexico is expected to reach western Florida Panhandle today to south of Tampico, Mexico by Sun morning. NW to N gale force winds are expected across the far SW Gulf of Mexico with seas 8 feet from Sun evening through Sun night. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... A tight pressure gradient between a 1023 mb Bermuda high centered near 23N65W and a 1008 mb low pressure north of Colombia is forcing winds of near-gale force over the central Caribbean and reaching gale-force just north of Colombia at night time. These conditions will continue through mid-week. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends across Africa reaching the east Atlantic waters near 10N15W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to near 02S39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within in the proximity of the coast of Brazil and the ITCZ from 43N-35S between 34W-47W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front across the NW Gulf waters extends from 29N90W to south of Tampico near 21N97W. Scatterometer data indicates southeasterly gentle to moderate across the basin. As the front continues to move SE, the NW Gulf observations show moderate to fresh northerly wind under clear skies. Fog is still present mainly 80 nm away from the northern Gulf coast and along the vicinity of the front with 1 to 2 miles visibility and ceilings around 200 to 500 feet ahead of the front. A surface trough ahead of the front extends from 29N89W to 25N95W. Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms are observed in the latest radar imagery from 87W-89W. A second trough is present west of the Yucatan Peninsula from 23N89W to 18N91W. No significant convection is present near the trough. A cold front extends from SE Louisiana to just south of Tampico, Mexico and will continue moving southeast and reach from the western Florida Panhandle to Tuxpan, Mexico this morning, and then gradually stall and weaken from the Florida Keys to the SW Gulf of Mexico tonight into Monday. Gale force northerly winds are expected behind the front offshore of Veracruz this evening through tonight. The remnants of the front will move northward Mon night through Tue and dissipate across the NE Gulf on Wed. Moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the W Gulf Wed through Thu. Refer to the Special Features section above for more details. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda 1023 mb high and the Colombian 1008 mb low is forcing winds of near gale over the central Caribbean and reaching gale just north of Colombia. No significant deep convection is occurring over the basin at this time. Refer to the Special Features section above for details about the Gale Warning in effect. High pressure between Hispaniola and Bermuda will shift ENE and into the central Atlc through Mon night, then be replaced by stronger high pressure moving into the W Atlc behind a cold front Mon night through Wed. This will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras during the next several days. Strong wind off of Colombia will increase to gale force during the nighttime hours through Wed night. Long period N to NE affecting the Atlantic and Caribbean Passages east of 65W has peaked and will slowly subside through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1023 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 26N65W. To the east, a cold front extends from a deep 954 mb low north of our area west- southwest to 31N30W to 23N49W to 25N61W. A warm up continues at that point to 31N68W. Scattered showers are present within the vicinity of the front between 29W-32W. A surface trough extends from 21N40W to 16N46W. No significant convection is noted with this feature. A surface ridge extends from a 1023 mb high near 29N69W to south Florida, and will shift ENE and into the central Atlc through Mon. A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast tonight and reach from Bermuda to the Florida Keys by Mon morning, before stalling and weakening along 26N through Tue night. High pressure behind the front will shift eastward across the W Atlc Tue through Wed night. A coastal trough will develop just offshore of the southeastern U.S. Wed night through Thu. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres