000 AXNT20 KNHC 222330 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 630 PM EST Fri Feb 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... A tight pressure gradient between a 1026 mb Bermuda High centered near 27N66W and lower pressures north of Colombian is forcing winds of near-gale force over the central Caribbean and reaching gale-force just north of Colombia at nighttime. These conditions will continue through Tuesday. ...Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front extends from a deep 968 mb low north of our area at 40N43W west-southwestward to 32N57 to 33N72W, then becomes stationary front to the coast of Georgia. The front will push southeastward and bring SW gale-force winds ahead of the front into our northeastern corner by tonight. These conditions will be short-lived as the strongest pressure gradient pulls northeastward away from our area, and wind speeds should decrease to a strong breeze by Saturday afternoon. Seas will peak at 22 ft under a NW swell on Saturday, before diminishing on Sunday. For both of these Gale Warnings, please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends across Africa reaching the east Atlantic waters near 05N11W. The ITCZ continues from that point to near 00S51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm north of the ITCZ from 12W-16W and 20W-30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across the northwest Gulf from 28N97W to 24N97W. No significant convection is occurring in conjunction with the front. Dense fog continues along the coast of Texas and Louisiana with multiple stations reporting 1/2 to 1/4 nm visibility. The fog extends over the Gulf of Mexico by up to 60 nm offshore of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. The fog is expected to continue tonight. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate winds across the basin. A cold front will move off the Texas coast on Saturday, reach from the western Florida Panhandle to Tampico Mexico by Sunday morning, before stalling and weakening from the Florida Keys to the SW Gulf of Mexico on Monday. The front will dissipate on Tuesday, as it moves northward as a warm front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian Low is forcing winds of near gale over the central Caribbean and reaching gale just north of Colombia. No significant deep convection is occurring over the Caribbean. See the Special Features section above for details about the Gale conditions and forecast discussion. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front north of our area will produce gale-force winds ahead of it into our northeastern corner tonight. See the Special Features section above for more details. Surface ridging extends across the Atlantic from 29N80W to a 1026 mb Bermuda high at 27N66W to a 1019 mb high near 29N30W. A frontal system extends southeast of the ridge. It is analyzed as a cold front from 31N21W to 22N33W, then as a stationary front from that point to 19N41W. A surface trough extends from 19N41W to 16N61W. Scattered showers are present within 60 nm of the cold front. Winds are moderate breeze or weaker in association with this frontal boundary. Long period north swell will propagate through the Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles beginning tonight, before dissipating from Sunday through Tuesday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA