000 AXNT20 KNHC 221136 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 636 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... A tight pressure gradient between a high pressure over the Atlantic building southward over the western Atlantic and low pressures inland over Colombia will enable winds to pulse to gale force at night, over the next few days. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front enters the central Atlantic from 31N27W to 26N38W. A Gale Warning is in effect for the area N of 30N between 37W-40W, with seas 16 to 20 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the Liberian coastline near 04N08W to 03N13W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 04S37W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 300 nm south of the ITCZ between 24W-31W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the coast of Louisiana near 29N92W to 27N96W. Over the Bay of Campeche, a surface trough extends south from 23N90W to 19N91W. Moderate to fresh southweasterly winds are prevailing across most of the basin while light to gentle winds prevail south over the Bay of Campeche. No significant convection is observed in the vicinity of the trough. A stationary front from SW Louisiana to off of Brownsville Texas will move inland over the Texas coast later this morning as a warm front. A cold front will move off the Texas coast early Sat, reach from the western Florida Panhandle to Tampico Mexico by early Sun, before stalling and weakening from the Florida Keys to the SW Gulf Mon. The front will dissipate Tue as it lifts northward as a warm front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fair weather prevails across the basin supported by dry air in the mid-and upper-levels of the atmosphere. Satellite images do show patches of low clouds and perhaps embedded isolated showers moving within the trade wind flow. Fresh to strong trade winds are over the central Caribbean, while moderate to fresh winds cover the remainder of the basin. High pressure north of the region will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in mainly the central Caribbean Sea, and north of Honduras during the next several days. Gale force winds will pulse at night and into the early morning near the coast of Colombia through Tue. Long period north to northeast swell will propagate through the Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles beginning tonight, before dissipating Sun through Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging extends across the west Atlantic anchored by a 1025 mb high near 29N60W. To the east, a cold front enters the discussion area near 31N26W and extends through 26N38W. A stationary dissipating front extends from 31N21W to 17N49W. No significant convection is related to this front at this time. Scatterometer data show a fairly large region of fresh winds north of the front to 30N, then stronger winds north of the area. Weather conditions are quiet over the eastern and tropical Atlantic, supported by surface high centered north of the region, as well as dry air aloft. A ridge axis will fluctuate between 27N and 29N through Sat, then shift southward ahead of a cold front moving off the coast of northeast Florida by late Sun. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Florida Keys by Mon afternoon, before stalling and weakening along roughly 26N through Tue. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres