000 AXNT20 KNHC 201710 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1210 PM EST Wed Feb 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from western Africa near 08N13W to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from this point to 03S35W to the coast of South America near 01S46W. Most of the deepest convection lies to the north of the ITCZ aided by an upper-level jet from the equator to 3N between 30W and 39W. Scattered moderate convection also exists from 3N to 6N between 10W and 14W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is moving slowly eastward across the Gulf of Mexico, and as of 1500 UTC the frontal boundary extends from southern Louisiana to a 1009 mb low pressure area over the southwestern Bay of Campeche near 21N97W. Northerly winds of 20 to 25 kt and scattered to numerous showers are occurring behind the front. Another frontal boundary, this one being stationary, lies over the far northeastern Gulf, but no siginifcant weather is currently occurring along that feature. Between the fronts, the weather conditions are relatively quiet with moderate east to southeast winds. The cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico is expected to stall and weaken tonight and Thursday as high pressure gradually builds westward from the Atlantic. This change in the weather pattern should cause southeasterly winds and mild conditons to become established over most of the area by the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Generally fair weather prevails across the Caribbean region today supported by widespread dry air in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere. Satellite images do show patches of low clouds and perhaps embedded isolated showers moving within the trade wind flow. The surface winds are strongest in the typical spot close to the Colombian coast, but these winds appear to have decreased below gale force today. Looking ahead for the next couple of days, no significant changes in the weather pattern are expected as high pressure remains anchored to the north of the area. This pattern should maintain fresh to strong trade winds across much of the area during the next couple of days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The most notable feature over the subtropical Atlantic is a cold front that enters the discussion area near 32N33W and extends to 25N60W, at which point it becomes stationary and lifts northward toward the Georgia coast. A line of clouds and likely embedded showers accompany the front. Recent scatterometer data shows a fairly large region of 20-25 kt winds north of the boundary to 32N, with stronger winds north of the area. Weather conditons are quiet over the eastern and tropical Atlantic supported by weak surface high pressure and dry air aloft. The front is expected to gradually weaken during the next day or two, allowing high pressure to dominate the region by the end of the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Cangialosi