000 AXNT20 KNHC 200526 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1226 AM EST Wed Feb 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... High pressure over the tropical Atlantic continues to build westward across the Caribbean, which will tighten the pressure gradient over the coast of Colombia. This will result in gale- force winds pulsing each night across this area and south-central Caribbean through Sun. A gale is presently in effect until 20/1500 UTC within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia with seas to 12 ft. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 09N13W to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from this point to 02S25W to the coast of South America near 05S38W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 01N-06N between 02W-08W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01S-05S between 09W-21W. Scattered moderate convection is also from 04N-02S between 24W-34W. GULF OF MEXICO... At 20/0300 UTC, a 1008 mb low is centered near Houston Texas at 29N84W. A cold front extends S from the low to NW Mexico near 25N97W. A warm front extends E from the low to the Florida Panhandle near 31N87W to Daytona Beach Florida near 29N81W. Satellite imagery shows overcast stratus clouds and fog W of the cold front and N of the warm front. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over N Florida. 10-20 kt southerly winds are over most of the Gulf of Mexico E of the cold front. The cold front will move E tonight and reach from SE Louisiana to Veracruz, Mexico on Wed afternoon where it will stall before lifting north again as a warm front through Thu evening. Looking ahead, another cold front should move off the Texas coast by Sat afternoon reaching from the Florida Big Bend to the western Bay of Campeche by Sun evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details about the Gale Warning in effect over the south-central Caribbean waters near Colombia. Recent scatterometer pass and surface observations indicated fresh to strong easterly trade winds prevail over much of the basin, with strongest winds just north of Colombia. Scattered quick moving showers are moving with the trades over the basin. Dry air in the mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere continues to dominate the region. High pressure north of the region will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over mainly the central Caribbean and north of Honduras, with gales pulsing off Colombia most nights through Sun night. N to NE swell will build over Atlantic waters E of the Windward and Leeward Islands on Thu and continue through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal system extends from the central Atlantic near 31N48W to 27N70W to 29N78W. A warm front continues to Daytona Florida near 29N81W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm N of the front. A 1022 mb high is also over the central Atlantic near 24N45W. A surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 26N32W to 21N31W. Over the W Atlantic, the portion of the front W of 75W will lift N of the area as a warm front through early Wed, while the portion east of 75W will dissipate over the SE waters Wed night. Fresh to strong winds associated with the front will continue to affect the NW waters through Wed evening. Surface high pressure will become established across the region on Thu and will prevail through the weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa