000 AXNT20 KNHC 190533 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1233 AM EST Tue Feb 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward across the Caribbean during the next day or so, which will tighten the pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures inland over Colombia. This will result in gale-force winds pulsing each night along the Coast of Colombia and portions of the southwestern Caribbean through mid-week. A gale is presently on going and is forecast to end on 19/1200 UTC. Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 06N10W and extends to 01N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01S30W to the coast of South America near 03S41W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the monsoon trough from 05N- 02S between 06W-23W. Similar convection is along the ITCZ from 01N-03S between 36W-44W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Cocoa Beach Florida to Tampa Florida to the north central Gulf of Mexico near 27N89W. A stationary front continues to the NW Gulf near 26N94W to 23N95W to the Bay of Campeche near 20N94W. Overcast low stratus and fog are noted northwest of front. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds north of the fronts, while gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail across the remainder of the basin. The entire front will stall tonight and then lift N toward the NW Gulf states through Tue evening before moving off the Texas coast again early Wed and stalling over the western Gulf through Thu. Expect strong to near gale force NE-E winds N of 25N and W of the front through Tue. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are expected W of the cold front again on Wed. Return moderate to fresh flow will dominate across the gulf Fri and Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details about the Gale Warning in effect over the south-central Caribbean waters near Colombia. Recent scatterometer pass and surface observations indicated moderate to fresh easterly trade winds prevail over much of the basin. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands and S of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico moving quickly west with the tradewinds. Dry air in the mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere continues to dominate the region. Strong to near gale force winds are expected over the S central Caribbean through the coming weekend, reaching minimal gale force along the coast of Colombia at night each night except Wed night. Strong winds will expand northward to Hispaniola adjacent waters through the coming weekend and westward past Jamaica starting Tue night as strong high pres builds N of the area. Strong to near gale force E to SE winds are also expected across the Caribbean waters S of 20N W of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras, through Sat night. NE to E swell will build over Atlantic waters E of the Windward and Leeward Islands by mid week continuing through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N76W to Cocoa Beach near 28N81W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high over the central Atlantic near 25N51W, and a 1028 mb high over the E Atlantic near 33N23W. This pattern maintains gentle to moderate winds across the western Atlantic, and moderate to fresh winds over the central and eastern Atlantic. Over the W Atlantic, the front will stall over the waters N of 27N on Tue. The western part of the front will then lift N by Tue night, while the eastern part will continue to move S-SE until dissipating over the SE waters on Thu. Fresh to strong winds associated with the front are expected over the NW forecast waters Tue and Wed. A ridge will build again by mid week and will prevail through the weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa