000 AXNT20 KNHC 182334 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 634 PM EST Mon Feb 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward across the Caribbean during the next day or so, which will tighten the pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures inland over Colombia. This will result in gale-force winds pulsing each night along the Coast of Colombia and portions of the southwestern Caribbean through mid-week. Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 06N10W and extends to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of South America near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough between 10W-20W. GULF OF MEXICO... The tail end of a frontal boundary extends across the basin. It is analyzed as a cold front from 30N83W to 26N91W, then it becomes stationary from that point to 21N95W. Low stratus and fog are noted northwest of front. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds north of the fronts, while gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail across the remainder of the basin. The cold front will reach from Tarpon Springs, Florida to the central gulf to near 26N94W tonight where it will completely become stationary. The front will then lift north toward the northwest Gulf states through Tuesday evening before moving off the Texas coast again early Wednesday and stalling over the northwest Gulf through the end of the week. Expect strong to near gale-force easterly winds north of 22N and west of the front through Tuesday morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected west of the cold front on Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details about the Gale Warning in effect over the south-central Caribbean waters near Colombia. Recent scatterometer pass and surface observations indicated moderate to fresh easterly trade winds prevail over much of the basin. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands and S of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico moving quickly west with the tradewinds. Dry air in the mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere continues to dominate the region. Strong to near gale force winds are expected over the S central Caribbean through the weekend, reaching minimal gale force along the coast of Colombia each night through mid-week. Strong winds will expand northward to Hispaniola adjacent waters through the weekend and westward past Jamaica starting Tuesday night as strong high pressure builds north of the area. Strong to locally near gale-force easterly winds are also expected across the Caribbean waters west of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras, through the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1023 mb high near 27N67W, and a 1025 mb high near 28N38W. This pattern maintains gentle to moderate winds across the western Atlantic, and moderate to fresh winds over the central and eastern Atlantic. The ridge will prevail across most of the basin maintaining the same scenario. A cold front will move off the NE Florida coast this evening, then stall over the waters north of 27N Tue. The western part of the front will lift north by Tuesday night, while the eastern part is forecast to move southeasterly until dissipating over the southeast waters by mid-week. A surface ridge will build again and prevail through Friday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA