000 AXNT20 KNHC 181808 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 108 PM EST Mon Feb 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward across the Caribbean basin during the next day or so, which will tighten the pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures inland over Colombia. This will result in gale-force winds along the Coast of Colombia and portions of the southwestern Caribbean. Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 08N13W and extends to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of South America near 01S44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is south of the monsoon trough from 02N-06N between 08W- 18W. Along the ITCZ, scattered moderate convection is observed from 00N-02N between 22W-25W and near the coast of Brazil from 03S-00N between 37W-44W. GULF OF MEXICO... The tail end of a cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W to the NW Gulf of Mexico near 25N94W to the Bay of Campeche near 19N94W. Low stratus and fog are W of front. 20-25 kt northerly winds are W of the front. The remainder of the basin has 10-20 kt southeast to south flow as a high pressure over the western Atlantic extends over the E Gulf waters. A cold front extending from the Florida Panhandle to the central Bay of Campeche will reach from Tarpon Springs, Florida to the central gulf to the Bay of Campeche late today as it becomes stationary. The front will then lift N toward the NW Gulf states through Tue evening before moving off the Texas coast again early Wed and stalling over the NW Gulf through Fri. Expect fresh to strong NE-E winds N of 22N and W of the front through Tue morning. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are expected W of the cold front on Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details about the Gale Warning in effect over the south-central Caribbean waters near Colombia. Recent scatterometer pass and surface observations indicated moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over much of the basin. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands and S of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico moving W with the tradewinds. Dry air in the mid- to-upper levels continues to dominate the region. Strong to near gale force winds are expected over the S central Caribbean through late Fri, reaching minimal gale force along the coast of Colombia at night each night except Wed night. Strong winds will expand northward to Hispaniola adjacent waters through late today and westward past Jamaica by Tue night as strong high pres builds N of the area. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are also expected across the Caribbean waters W of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras, through Fri. NE to E swell will build over Atlantic waters E of the Windward and Leeward Islands by mid week continuing through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1030 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 34N24W. This pattern maintains gentle to moderate winds across the western Atlantic, and moderate to fresh winds over the central and Eastern Atlantic. A ridge extending westward over the forecast area is maintaining gentle to moderate wind flow across the region, increasing to moderate to fresh offshore of northern Florida. A cold front will move off the NE Florida coast this evening, then stall over the waters N of 27N Tue. The western part of the front will lift N by Tue night, while the eastern part is forecast to move S-SE until dissipating over the SE waters on Thu. A ridge will build again by mid week and will prevail through Fri. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres