000 AXNT20 KNHC 171731 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1230 PM EST Sun Feb 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward across the Caribbean basin during the next day or so, which will tighten the pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures inland over Colombia. This will result in gale-force winds along the Coast of Colombia and portions of the southwestern Caribbean. These gale- force winds are expected to develop by 0300 UTC tonight from 11N- 12.5N between 73W- 76W with seas to 11 ft. Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 10N14W and extends to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 01N30W to the coast of South America near 03S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03S-06N between 06W-11W, and S of 01S W of 37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front has emerged just off the Texas coast this morning and as of 1500 UTC extended from near Houston to Corpus Christi, with areas of low stratus and fog within about 60 nm to the southeast of the front. Fresh northerly winds are north of the front. The remainder of the Gulf basin is under moderate to fresh southeast to south flow between low pressure along the Mexico coast near Tampico, and high pressure over the western Atlantic that extends over the Gulf basin. The cold front will stall across the northern Gulf waters through Mon, lift N toward the northern Gulf states Tue, before moving off the Texas coast again Wed and stalling over the NW Gulf through late week. Expect fresh to strong easterly winds N of the front over the NW and N central Gulf Mon and Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details about the forecast Gale event over the south-central Caribbean near Colombia. This morning's scatterometer pass and surface observations indicated fresh to strong southeast winds over the gulf of Honduras, and moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over much of the remainder of the Caribbean basin. Other than some passing trade wind showers, no significant convection is noted across the basin as dry air in the mid- to- upper levels continues to dominate the region. Moderate to fresh winds over the central and eastern Caribbean are increasing over the southern Caribbean as high pres builds N of the area. Strong to near gale force winds are expected over the S central Caribbean tonight through the next several days, reaching minimal gale force at night each night except Wed night. Fresh to strong E to SE are also expected across the Caribbean waters W of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras, through Thu night. NE to E swell over Atlantic waters E of the Windward and Leeward Islands will gradually subside through today, then will rebuild by mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1034 mb surface high centered just west of the Azores near 38N32W. This pattern maintains gentle to moderate winds across the western Atlantic, and moderate to fresh winds over the central and Eastern Atlantic. A cold front will move off the NE Florida coast late Mon, then stall over the waters N of 27N Tue. The western part of the front will lift N by late Tue, while the eastern part is forecast to remain near 27N. A ridge and southerly return flow will prevail again by mid week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto