000 AXNT20 KNHC 171043 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 543 AM EST Sun Feb 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward across the Caribbean basin during the next 24-48 hours and combine with low pressure over Colombia, increasing the pressure gradient and winds across the portions of the southwestern Caribbean. Gale-force winds are expected to develop by 0600 UTC 18 Feb from 10N-12N between 73W-76W. Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 11N15W and extends to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to the coast of South America near 03S41W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N-06N between 09W-17W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters. 10-20 kt southerly return flow is noted with strongest winds over the W Gulf. A stationary front is along the Texas coast. A cold front is further inland over Texas. No significant convection is observed across the Gulf waters at this time. Satellite imagery shows an area of low stratus or fog over the NW Gulf from SE Louisiana to N of Veracruz Mexico. Weak ridging across the Gulf will shift E this morning ahead of a cold front moving off the Texas coast later today. The front will stall across the northern Gulf waters through Mon, lift N toward the northern Gulf states Tue, before moving off the Texas coast again Wed and stalling over the NW Gulf through late week. Expect fresh to strong easterly winds N of the front over the NW and N central Gulf Mon and Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details about the forecast Gale event over the south-central Caribbean near Colombia. Scatterometer data and surface observations indicated moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over the entire basin. No significant convection is noted anywhere in the basin. Moderate to fresh winds over the central and eastern Caribbean are increasing over the southern Caribbean as high pressure builds N of the area. Strong to near gale force winds are expected over the S central Caribbean tonight through Wed night, reaching minimal gale force at night Sun night through Tue night. Fresh to strong E to SE are also expected across the Caribbean waters W of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras, through Wed night. NE to E swell over Atlantic waters E of the Windward and Leeward Islands will gradually subside through today, then will rebuild by mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1032 mb surface high centered near 30N38W. This pattern maintains gentle to moderate winds across the region. Over the W Atlantic, a ridge is maintaining a gentle to moderate wind flow across the region. A cold front will move off the NE Florida coast late Mon, then stall over the waters N of 27N Tue. The western part of the front will lift N by late Tue, while the eastern part is forecast to remain near 27N. A ridge and southerly return flow will prevail again by mid week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa