000 AXNT20 KNHC 170531 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1231 AM EST Sun Feb 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward across the Caribbean basin during the next 24-48 hours and combine with low pressure over Colombia, increasing the pressure gradient and winds across the portions of the southwestern Caribbean. Gale-force winds are expected to develop by 0600 UTC 18 Feb from 10N-12N between 73W-76W. Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa. gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 11N15W and extends to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. No significant convection is related to these features at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge continues to dominate the gulf waters. Recent scatterometer and surface wind data indicated gentle to moderate southerly wind flow across the basin, mainly south of 26N. Winds are 10 kt or less north of 26N. A stationary front currently extends along the N Gulf coastline. No significant convection is observed across the Gulf waters at this time. Dense fog will restrict visibilities in the NW and N central Gulf. A ridge and return southerly flow will prevail through Sun afternoon. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf while a trough develops in the SW and W central Gulf by Sun evening. The front will stall across the northern Gulf waters while the trough lingers through Mon afternoon. Then, the front will lift N toward the northern Gulf states on Tue and the trough will shift westward, with high pressure prevailing again by Tue night. The front will move back offshore Wed, then will gradually retreat again as ridging holds strong. Expect fresh to strong easterly winds N of the front over the NW and N central Gulf Mon and Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details about the forecast Gale event over the south-central Caribbean near Colombia. Scatterometer data and surface observations indicated moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over the entire basin. No significant convection is noted anywhere in the basin. Moderate to fresh winds over the central and eastern Caribbean will increase in the southern Caribbean by early Sun due to high pressure building north of the area. Strong to near gale force winds are expected over the south-central Caribbean Sunday night through Wed night, reaching minimal gale force at night Sun night through Tue night. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are also expected across the Caribbean waters W of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras, Sun through Wed night. NE to E swell over Atlantic waters E of the Windward and Leeward Islands will gradually subside through Sun, then rebuild by mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1032 mb surface high centered near 30N38W. This pattern maintains gentle to moderate winds across the region. Over the W Atlantic, a ridge is maintaining a gentle to moderate wind flow across the region. A cold front will clip the waters N of 30N on Sun. Another cold front will move across the waters N of 27N Mon afternoon through Tue. The western part of the front will lift N by late Tue, while the eastern part is forecast to remain near 27N. A ridge and return flow will prevail again by mid week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa