000 AXNT20 KNHC 161055 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 555 AM EST Sat Feb 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Liberia near 06N11W and extends to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 04S36W. Scattered showers are occurring south of 02S between 30W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge continues to dominate the gulf waters. Latest scatterometer and surface data depict a moderate to locally fresh southerly wind flow across the basin. A surface trough is located along the Yucatan Peninsula from 22N88W to 18N91W. No significant convection is observed across the Gulf waters. A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through early Sun, maintaining moderate to locally fresh SE return flow over the western Gulf. The next cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico Sun and extend from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico by early Mon as broad low pres forms off Veracruz in the SW Gulf through Mon. The front will stall across the northern Gulf waters through Tue morning, then lift NW across the northern Gulf by late Tue as the low moves inland over NE Mexico and dissipates. The front will move again over the NW Gulf by Wed, reaching from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico by Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid to upper-level trough extends from the west Atlantic to a base over the Southwestern Caribbean while surface ridge builds across the Western Caribbean. Diffluent flow to the east of the upper-level trough supports scattered showers NE of Hispaniola and adjacent waters. Surface ridging also prevails across the eastern Caribbean. Scattered showers are possible Western Caribbean. A surface trough extends from 19N81W to 17N83W and a second trough further east is near 20N77W to 16N79W. No significant convection is observed in the vicinity of both troughs. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh trades over the eastern Caribbean while a gentle to moderate trades are observed west of 80W. Moderate to fresh winds over the central and eastern Caribbean will increase in the southern Caribbean by early Sun due to high pres building N of the area. Strong to near gale force winds are expected over the S central Caribbean Sun night through Tue night, with gale conditions possible off Colombia on Mon night. Fresh to strong E to SE are also expected across the Caribbean water W of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras Sun through Wed night. NE to E swell over Atlantic waters E of the Windward and Leeward Islands will gradually subside through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Latest scatterometer data indicate a weak high pressure centered near 28N74W with gentle winds west of 73W. A mid to upper-level trough extends from the west Atlantic to a base over the SW Caribbean with diffluent flow to the east of the upper-level trough supporting scattered showers from 18N between 56W-68W. A 1011 low press is centered near 31N69W with a surface trough extending southward to 26N72W. No convection is noted with this trough. A warm front also extends to the east of the low into the central Atlantic near 34N45W. The remainder central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1031 mb surface high centered near 30N38W. Weak high pressure centered near 28N74W will keep gentle to moderate winds across the region. A cold front will move across the waters N of 29N early Sun, pushing E of 65W by early Mon. Another cold front will move across the waters N of 27N Mon afternoon through Tue. The western part of the front is forecast to lift N on Wed as another cold front approaches from the W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres