000 AXNT20 KNHC 160606 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 106 AM EST Sat Feb 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Liberia near 07N11W and extends to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 04S36W. Scattered showers are occurring south of 02S between 31W and 37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge continues to dominate the gulf waters. Latest scatterometer and surface data depict a gentle to moderate anticyclinic wind flow across the basin. No significant convection is observed across the Gulf waters. A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through early Sun, maintaining moderate to locally fresh SE return flow over the western Gulf. The next cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico Sun and extend from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico by early Mon as broad low pres forms off Veracruz in the SW Gulf through Mon. The front will stall across the northern Gulf waters through Tue morning, then lift NW across the northern Gulf by late Tue as the low moves inland over NE Mexico and dissipates. The front will then attempt to move again over the NW Gulf by Wed, probably reaching from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico by Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid to upper-level trough extends from the west Atlantic to a base over the Southwestern Caribbean while surface ridge remains across the Western Caribbean. Diffluent flow to the east of the upper- level trough supports scattered showers NE of Hispaniola and adjacent waters. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. Scattered showers are present across west Cuba and Western Caribbean. A surface trough extends from 19N82W and a second trough further east near 16N79W. No significant convection is observed in the vicinity of both troughs. Scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate trades currently cover the eastern Caribbean while a moderate to fresh trades are observed from 68W- 73W. Moderate to fresh winds over the central and eastern Caribbean through Sat night will increase in the southern Caribbean by early Sun due to high pres building N of the area. Strong to near gale force winds are expected over the S central Caribbean Sun night through Tue night, with gale conditions possible off Colombia on Mon night. Fresh to strong E to SE are also expected across the Caribbean water W of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras Sun through Wed night. NE to E swell over Atlantic waters E of the Windward and Leeward Islands will gradually subside through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid to upper-level trough extends from the west Atlantic to a base over the Southwestern Caribbean with diffluent flow to the east of the upper-level trough supporting scattered showers NE of Hispaniola and adjacent waters between 62W-70W. A 1011 low press is centered near 29N71W. A trough extends south from the low to the central Bahamas. A warm front also extends to the east of the low to 31N66W. The remainder central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1031 mb surface high centered near 30N38W. A surface trough extends from the low center to the central Bahamas. The low will be N of the forecast area on Sat, dragging the associated trough across the NE waters through late Sat. A new cold front will move across the waters N of 29N early Sun, pushing E of 65W by early Mon. Another cold front will move across the waters N of 27N Mon afternoon through Tue. The western part of the front is forecast to lift N on Wed as another cold front approaches from the W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres